Arizona right-hander Archie Bradley is coming off his best month of the 2016 campaign, posting a 3.67 ERA over six starts in June with a 9.97 K/9 rate (38 strikeouts in 34 1/3 innings). The blue-chip prospect takes the mound in this National League West showdown with a 9.17 K/9 rate and 23.6% K% overall, together with a 4.50 ERA, 4.57 FIP, 4.01 xFIP and a 4.30 SIERA.
Bradley’s issue has always been a lack of control as he has 4.33 BB/9 rate and 11.1 BB% this season, which mirrors what he garnered in 35.2 Triple-A innings earlier this season. But, he has pitched extremely well over his last six starts, posting a 3.67 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP and a 47-to-18 K/BB ratio in 41 2/3 innings of work. In his last three outings, Bradley owns a 2.12 ERA and 1.35 WHIP.
Bradley now faces an anemic San Diego lineup that is averaging 3.6 runs per game versus right-handed starters (.229 AVG.; .282 OBP; .640 OPS) and 3.8 runs per game versus National League West foes (.228 AVG.; .279 OBP; .636 OPS).
Meanwhile, San Diego turns to 23-year-old rookie Luis Perdomo, who owns a 7.72 ERA and 1.80 WHIP this season, including a 7.62 ERA and 1.92 WHIP on the road and a 6.35 ERA and 1.58 WHIP over his last three starts.
The Rule 5 Pick was thrown into the Padres’ starting rotation in the beginning of June after posting a 9.88 ERA in ten relief appearances. Perdomo has garnered a 7.71 ERA in five outings since joining the rotation and provides little upside based upon his 5.45 FIP, 4.42 BB/9 and 1.70 HR/9 rates.
However, the right-hander hasn’t been as bad as his statistics suggest as he’s been hampered by an unsustainable .403 BABIP and an unlucky 62.2% LOB%.
San Diego’s bullpen continues to struggle with a 4.56 ERA and 1.40 WHIP, including a 7.29 ERA and 1.71 WHIP in the last seven games. From a technical standpoint, the Padres are a money-burning 8-22 in their last 30 games versus right-handed starters, including 2-11 on the road.
With Arizona standing at 7-1 in Bradley’s last eight starts versus National League West opponents, take the Diamondbacks and invest with confidence.