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Monday Night Football Research & Analysis

Pro Edge can’t remember a worse matchup for Monday Night Football as the 3-4 Rams host the 6-1 Seahawks.  We have never been keen on investing on public favorites, especially on the road, it is difficult to make a case for St. Louis tonight.  Quarterback Kellen Clemens makes his thirteenth start of his NFL career, which is good news for Seattle fans in that Clemens is 4-8 as a starter with 7 touchdowns and thirteen interceptions, together with a pathetic 51.8% completion rate.  “Somebody’s got to play,” said Clemens, who has a 62.2 career passer rating in 31 games.  “So I’ll go out there and do the best job I can and try to help this team win some games.”  Clemens faces a defense tied for fourth in the NFL with 23 sacks after it recorded seven against Carson Palmer last week.

Let’s also note that St. Louis is 0-4 on Monday night and 3-12 ATS as division home underdogs of four or more points, while Monday night home divisional underdogs of 11 or more points are 0-3 ATS over the last three decades!  Please find below compelling Monday Night Football research and analysis that seemingly favors the road favorite:

Seattle Offense vs. St. Louis Defense:

The Seahawks are averaging 27.3 points per game on 4.5 yards per rush play, 7.7 yards per pass attempt, 6.0 yards per play and 13.5 yards per point.  Overall, Seattle is 0.4 yards per rush play, 1.1 yards per pass play and 0.5 yards per play better than average offensively in 2013.   Meanwhile, St. Louis is yielding 26.3 points per game on 4.2 yards per rush play, 8.0 yards per pass play and 373 total yards (6.1 yards per play) this season. Overall, Seattle possesses a significant 0.7 yards per rush play, 2.4 yards per pass attempt and 1.1 yards per play advantage offensively over the Rams’ stop unit.

Seattle Defense vs. St. Louis Offense:

Seattle takes the field with a solid defense that is 0.3 yards per rush play (3.7 yards per carry to teams that combine to average 4.0 yards per carry), 0.9 yards per pass attempt (5.5 yards per pass play to teams that combine to average 6.4 yards per pass play) and 0.5 yards per play better than average (4.8 yards per play to teams that combine to average 5.3 yards per play).  From the line of scrimmage, Seattle maintains a 1.2 yards per rush play, 1.6 yards per pass attempt and 1.2 yards per play advantage defensively over the Rams’ anemic attack.  However, that advantage is further amplified by the loss of starting quarterback Sam Bradford, who was 21-of-30 for 255 yards with a touchdown against the Panthers before suffering a torn ACL.

While the experts at Pro Edge generally like to support NFL home underdogs on prime time television, we cannot justify a wager on the Rams tonight.  Seattle is 5-0-1 ATS in its last six Monday night appearances and 9-3 ATS in this series.

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