Sharp money immediately flooded the betting market after Washington was initially installed as 4.5-point underdogs. However, now that the line has risen to a touchdown at most domestic and off shore sports books, several professional bettors have come back to take the Panthers at the artificially- inflated number (+7).
My math model favors Washington by only five points, and the Redskins apply to a very negative 34-71 ATS system that invests against certain favorites of -3.5 to -10 points after covering the point spread in two of their last three games, provided they have a winning percentage of .510 to .600 and are facing a .499 or worse foe in the second half of the season.
The Redskins are also a woeful 1-15 SU and ATS in their last sixteen Monday Night Football home games and 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS after tussling with division nemesis Philadelphia. In contrast, Carolina is a profitable 10-1 ATS following an upset against a non-division opponent during the final four weeks of the regular season.
Let’s also note that NFL teams that lost in the Super Bowl the prior season are 30-17-1 ATS during the final four games of the regular season as a pick or underdog, including 24-10 ATS versus .501 or greater opposition. I should also note that the Redskins are just 10-25-2 ATS in their last 37 home games versus teams with as losing road record.
Carolina could also have star linebacker Luke Kuechly back after missing the previous three games with a concussion. Kuechly is the team’s emotional leader and an integral component to the Panthers’ success on defense.
Meanwhile, the Redskins are expected to be without linebackers Will Compton (doubtful; knee) and Su’a Cravens (doubtful; bicep), while center Spencer Long is recovering from as concussion and his status is uncertain for tonight’s game.
Washington tight end Jordan Reed is expected to play tonight despite being severely limited in practice this week due to a shoulder injury that limited him to just ten snaps last week.
After being embarrassed on national television two weeks ago by Seattle, the Panthers bounced back with a resounding 28-16 win (and cover) against the Chargers. That win in the face of adversity was a buy sign for me, especially now that the point spread has reached +7 at most books.
For value investors, Carolina offers excellent value at any number above six points. Finally, Washington is considered to be in a “must-win” situation tonight, which has proven to be a bad investment (against-the-spread) historically.
Grab the generous points with the Carolina Panthers on Monday Night Football as Oskeim Sports’ Free Sports Pick for December 19.
Oskeim Sports’ Free NFL Sports Pick: Carolina Panthers (+7)
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