Game: Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets
Time: 3:00 p.m.
Odds: Dolphins -9, Jets +9
Total: 40.5
In the NFL’s first-ever Black Friday game, the Miami Dolphins (7-3 SU, 6-4 ATS) will look to solidify their position atop the AFC East when they play the New York Jets (4-6, 4-5-1). The Fish are just 2-8 SU in their last 10 road games, but Miami has won its last 8 games against teams with losing records. The Jets, meanwhile, are hoping that a quarterback change will invigorate their offense, which has led them to go Under the total in five straight games. Miami is 4-1 ATS in the previous five meetings at MetLife Stadium and has won five of the last six meetings with the Jets overall
Miami leads the NFL in both passing and total yards going into this week’s games, but the Dolphins defense has improved significantly in recent weeks. Miami went Under the total for the third time in four games overall and for the eighth time in its last 11 games as a favorite. Last week, the Fins recorded two interceptions and a fourth-down stop in the final ten minutes of Sunday’s 20-13 victory over Las Vegas.
The Dolphins have improved significantly from their 21st-place ranking in the first seven weeks to 12th in the NFL in total defense since cornerback Jalen Ramsey entered the lineup in Week 8. Against the Raiders, Ramsey had two of Miami’s three interceptions, including one that sealed the victory in the closing seconds.
New York is hoping that a quarterback change will galvanize an offense that has struggled to score more than 10 points per game in the previous month. Tim Boyle, who will make his fourth career start against the Dolphins on Friday, took Zach Wilson’s spot halfway through Sunday’s 32-6 loss at Buffalo. Wilson completed 7-of-15 passes for 81 yards, a touchdown, and a pick last week. Boyle was 7-for-15 for 33 yards and an interception.
In five straight games and six of their last seven played at home, the Jets have seen the total go Under. That’s also been the case in their last eight straight games against AFC East opponents. The Jets have a dismal 3-18 SU record in their last 21 games against AFC East rivals. That’s not good news.
Although Tua Tagovailoa has a 3-0 career record against the Jets, Miami’s running game may be the more important factor in their offensive success. With an average of 5.6 yards per rush, Miami leads the NFL. New York has given up the third-most rushing yards per game.
Laying double digits on the road isn’t always the best scenario for bettors, but the Dolphins have a history of dominating inferior teams. They’ve won the last seven by an average of almost 17 points per game and have covered eight straight against opponents with winning percentages under .500.
The Jets may benefit some from the presence of Doyle, but it will be their defense that will be a key. The Dolphins have a considerable quarterback advantage. But, Miami’s offense hasn’t been nearly as effective on the road this season. In its last three road games, Miami has failed to score more than 20 points.
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