Game: Minnesota Timberwolves @ Dallas Mavericks
Time: 8:30 p.m. ET
Odds: Timberwolves +3.5, Mavericks -3.5
Total: 230
It’s a crucial game in Dallas tonight as Minnesota, currently sixth in the Western Conference standings, faces the Mavericks who are in fifth place. It’s also a battle of one of the best offensive teams in the NBA against one of the best defenses in the league. Both teams have been playing very well as of late. Minnesota has just one loss in its last 11 games. Dallas is 14-5 SU in its last 19 games.
The Mavericks are glad to be home tonight. They lost their last two games – Philadelphia and Charlotte – in closing out a five-game road trip. Dallas has won 15 of its last 19 games and the American Airlines Center. Dallas has been doing it with defense. The Mavs are second in the NBA allowing 104.1 points per game. Lately, though, they have been giving up some points.
In consecutive losses to the Hornets and Sixers, Dallas allowed 129 and 111 points. In their last three games, the Mavs are allowing 117 points a game. Over their last ten games, the Mavericks have given up 108 points per game. Dallas won seven of those games.
It’s worth mentioning the Mavs defense because they will be facing the NBA’s highest-scoring team tonight. The TWolves average 115.5 points per game. Over their last ten games, Minnesota is just shy of 130 points per game. In their last three games – all wins – The TWolves are averaging a ridiculous 137 points per game. Saturday, they defeated Milwaukee 138-119.
In addition to going 10-1 SU in their last 11 games, Minnesota is also 10-1 ATS. The Timberwolves have struggled against Dallas with just two wins over the Mavericks in the last eight games. Minnesota is also just 4-9 ATS in the last 13 games against the Mavs. Playing in Dallas, Minnesota has won just once in the past six trips.
Tonight’s game will feature two of the top scorers in the league. Karl-Anthony Towns, who is listed as questionable with a forearm bruise, is averaging 24.9 points a game. Last Monday, Towns put up 60 against San Antonio. His counterpart, Luka Doncic, is averaging 28.1 points a game. Doncic is coming off a 37-point effort against the Hornets. He has been helped by the acquisition of Spencer Dinwiddie who is averaging 17.5 points a game for the Mavs.
Tonight’s total of 230 is something the Mavs don’t see too often. Dallas has seen just two totals above 225 all season. It’s not surprising though as Minnesota is the best Over team in the league. Keep in mind though that the Mavs are the best Under team. In Timberwolves away games this season, the Over is 27-9. On the other end, in Dallas home games this year, the O/U record is 9-25-1.
Five of Minnesota’s last seven games have gone Under. Two of those games had totals of 229 and 230.5. Five of the Mavericks’ last seven games also saw the total go Under.