Game: Golden State Warriors @ Boston Celtics
Time: 9:00 p.m. ET
Odds: Warriors +4, Celtics -4
Total: 214.5
Boston can go up 3-1 in the NBA Finals with another win at home tonight. The Celtics were able to win Game 3 at home on Wednesday and two things stand out as keys to another victory tonight – turnovers and Stephen Curry. In Game 3, Curry hit six three-pointers and scored 31 points, but he is listed as questionable tonight with an injury. It’s likely that Curry plays, but he might not be at full strength.
Curry’s status might not matter if Boston has trouble holding onto the basketball. Turnovers have played a dramatic role in Boston’s success this playoff season. In the postseason this year when the Celtics commit 14 turnovers or less, they are 13-2. When they have 15 or more turnovers, Boston is 1-5. So far in the NBA Finals, Boston has two wins and in each of those games, the Celtics had 12 turnovers. In their lone loss, Boston turned the ball over 18 times. If they are going to take a 3-1 advantage tonight, the Celtics must take care of the basketball.
Another key for both teams is the play of their secondary players. Curry and Klay Thompson have been the stars for Golden State. Draymond Green was his usual self in Game 2, the game that the Warriors won. He had nine points, seven assists, and five rebounds. In Game 3 though, Green was virtually nonexistent. He had just two points, three assists, and four rebounds.
For Boston, it has been Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown who have been the big guns. In Game 1, Al Horford hit 6-of-8 three-pointers and scored 26 points to lead Boston to victory. In Game 3, Marcus Smart scored 24 points. In Boston’s loss in Game 2, Horford, Smart, and Robert Williams each scored just two points. These secondary players for both teams will play huge roles tonight.
If there is a key number for the Warriors tonight, it would be 46 percent. During this year’s playoffs, when the Warriors have shot over 46 percent from the field they are 9-3 SU. When Golden State shoots under 46 percent, they are 4-4 SU. The point spread hasn’t mattered much so far as the outright winner in all three games has covered each time. It’s also worth noting that Boston has owned Golden State recently.
In the last ten head-to-head meetings with Golden State, Boston is 8-2 SU. The Celtics are also 5-2 SU and ATS in their last seven games overall and 4-1-1 ATS in their last six against Golden State at home. The Warriors have won 14 of their last 20 games overall and they are 6-3 ATS in their last nine. What’s interesting is that Golden State is just 1-6 ATS in its last seven road games and 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games played against Boston.
Two of the three games in the series have gone Over the total. That gives Golden State a 4-1 O/U record in its last five games. In the last 16 games played between these two teams, the Under is 12-4.