MLB Game Preview: San Diego Padres at Philadelphia Phillies

Oct 21, 2022

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Game: San Diego Padres @ Philadelphia Phillies

Time: 7:37 p.m. ET

Odds: Padres -115, Phillies -105

Total: 7.5

The Philadelphia Phillies got exactly what they needed in San Diego despite a shaky showing in Game 2. The Phillies return home tonight to host the Padres with the series tied at 1-1. When the Phillies face the Padres in Game 3 of the National League Championship Series tonight, they will look to capitalize on a boisterous sellout crowd.

Philadelphia defeated the Atlanta Braves, the defending World Series champions, in the National League Division Series, winning that series after returning to Philadelphia and winning two straight. This is the first NLCS game that Philadelphia has hosted since the Phillies’ 2010 series against the San Francisco Giants.

For the Phillies, Ranger Suarez (10-7, 3.65 ERA regular season; 0-0, 2.70 ERA postseason) will get the start. During his one postseason appearance against the Braves, Suarez allowed one run on three hits. He walked five and struck out five in 3.1 innings. Phillies manager Rob Thomson said that Zack Wheeler will not start Game 4 on Saturday. That means the Phillies need a big night from Suarez.

The Padres, who are hoping to make their first World Series appearance since 1998, overcame a huge deficit in Game 2 to tie the series. Down 4-0, San Diego got home runs from Manny Diaz, Brandon Drury, and Josh Bell. The Padres lineup is deep too with Manny Machado, Juan Soto, and Jake Cronenworth making it difficult for any pitcher.

Red-hot Joe Musgrove (10-7, 2.93 ERA regular season; 1-0, 1.38 ERA postseason) will receive take the mound for the Padres tonight. Musgrove pitched 13 postseason innings against the New York Mets and Los Angeles Dodgers, giving up seven hits, two runs, and 13 strikeouts. Musgrove likes pitching on the road as it puts more pressure on him to succeed.

Once Musgrove exits the game, San Diego will turn to reliever Josh Hader who was instrumental in the Padres getting this far. Hader struggled earlier this season, but his turnaround is one of the reasons why the Padres are a serious World Series contender. Hader now has eight straight strikeouts in the postseason.

The Padres, who are 4-1 SU in their last five games, are just 2-4 SU in their last six against Philadelphia. The Phillies are 6-2 SU in their last eight games. In those eight games – all in the postseason – the Phillies have scored at least five runs five times. They are averaging 4.9 runs per game in the playoffs.

The Over is 4-2 in Philadelphia’s last six games but, in the series with San Diego, the Under has been the trend. The Under has cashed in 12 of the last 17 games against the Padres. The Under is also 7-1 in the last eight games against San Diego that were played in Philadelphia.

The Padres have seen the Over hit in nine of their last 12 games and in six of their last seven on the road.

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