Game: Atlanta Braves at Houston Astros
Time: 8:09 PM ET
Starting Pitchers: Max Fried vs. Luis Garcia
Odds: Braves +116, Astros -124
As most postseason baseball games do, tonight’s World Series Game 6 comes down to the pitching matchup. The Braves lead the series 3-2 after Houston took Game 5 in Atlanta. The Astros will try to tie the series up at 3-3 and force a deciding Game 7. To do so, Houston will put Luis Garcia on the mound.
Garcia was very good during the regular season. He went 11-8 with an ERA of 3.48 and an FIP of 3.63. His postseason has not gone that well as a whole. Garcia has started four playoff games and his record is 1-2. The bigger concern is his 7.62 ERA. Now, he did pitch in Game 3 and had a solid outing. He allowed just three hits and one run in 3.2 innings. Garcia will pitch tonight’s game on short rest.
For the Braves, they will go with their best pitcher, Max Fried, in an effort to end the series tonight and win Atlanta’s first World Series since 1995. Fried got progressively better throughout the 2021 regular season. He started 28 games total and posted a 3.04 ERA along with a 14-7 record. Fried spent some time on the injured list early in the season. In his last 25 starts, his ERA drops to 2.44.
Then, there are Fried’s last 12 starts of the regular season. All 12 were quality starts and Atlanta went 10-2 in those games. Fried’s ERA in those 12 starts was an eye-opening 1.56. In the postseason, Fried was equally dominant in his first two starts giving up two earned runs in 12 innings. The issue with Fried is that he has struggled in his last two postseason appearances. He has given up 10 earned runs in 9.2 innings. Atlanta lost both games.
Atlanta’s success in the postseason has come primarily from their pitching. The Braves have scored just 18 runs in five games so far. Houston has scored 20, including a nine-run outburst in Game 5. Games 1 and 2 featured a total of eight and nine runs, respectively. Both of those games were played indoors at Minute Maid Park. The first two games in Atlanta saw a total of just seven runs. It was more difficult for hitters in the colder weather.
Moving back to Minute Maid Park may help both offenses. Then again, it might not. Don’t forget, both teams had Monday off. That means both bullpens will be fully rested heading into tonight. The total has gone Under in four of Atlanta’s last six games and the Under is 10-4-1 in the last 15 Braves-Astros games.
Houston has fared pretty well against Atlanta recently. The Astros are 7-3 in their last 10 games against Atlanta, including a 4-1 mark when playing at home. Houston plays well at home as evidenced by their 7-2 record in their last nine home games.