Indiana (+9.5) (-110) over Michigan
Analysis: The point spread in this game is laughable as it could be argued that Indiana is the better team and should be favored this afternoon. Indiana arrives in town with an explosive offense that is averaging 41.7 points per game on 4.7 yards per rush play, 8.4 yards per pass attempt and 504 total yards (6.6 yards per play; 12.1 yards per point). Overall, the Hoosiers are 0.8 yards per rush play, 1.9 yards per pass play and 1.4 yards per play better than average offensively in 2013.
Indiana Offense vs. Michigan Defense:
+0.0 yards per rush play advantage
+1.3 yards per pass attempt advantage
+1.0 yards per play advantage overall
Based on the numbers above, Indiana will have success exploiting an overrated Michigan defense that just 0.4 yards per play better than average. Most amateur sports bettors would be surprised to learn that Michigan’s offense is only 0.3 yards per play better than average despite garnering 39.0 points per game in 2013. Overall, Indiana is 1.4 yards per play better than average from the line of scrimmage, whereas the Wolverines are 0.6 yards per play better than average. In short, the Hoosiers maintain a significant advantage in this contest from a fundamental standpoint.
The technical analysis also favors Indiana as Michigan falls into a very negative 23-87-3 ATS letdown situation that is predicated upon the Wolverines’ four overtime loss at Penn State last week. Michigan also applies to 23-45 ATS and 3-26-1 ATS situations that invest against certain 5-0 teams who are coming off their first loss of the season. Let’s also note that the Wolverines are a money-burning 23-42 ATS as favorites of 3.5 to 10 points, 7-18 ATS at home off an upset loss and 3-12 ATS at home off an upset loss on the road. Grab the generous points and invest with confidence.