NCAA Basketball Betting Preview: Georgetown at Marquette

Jan 24, 2015


Marquette is 9-1 ATS versus teams with a winning record this season, including a perfect 9-0 ATS versus teams owning a win percentage between of .601 or greater. The Golden Eagles are also a profitable 4-1 ATS in their last five games off a loss, 4-1 ATS in their last five games versus conference opponents and 7-2 ATS in their last nine home games. In contrast, Georgetown is a money-burning 2-8 ATS in its last ten conference games, 0-7 ATS in its last seven games after covering the point spread, 1-5-1 ATS in its last seven road games and 1-4 ATS in its last five games following a win.

As evidenced above, the technical analysis overwhelmingly favors Marquette Saturday afternoon. And, Marquette investors will be pleased to know that my database contains a few additional trends/angles supporting the Golden Eagles in today’s NCAA basketball affair:

  • Georgetown is 2-10 ATS as a road underdog L/2 seasons;
  • Georgetown is 3-11 ATS on the road L/2 seasons;
  • Georgetown is 2-10 ATS off a double-digit home win L/2 seasons;
  • Marquette is 32-17 ATS in competitively-priced games (+3 to -3);
  • Marquette is 8-0 ATS vs. good teams who are outscoring foes by 4+ points per game

Marquette’s strength is its defense that is allowing 63.4 points per game to teams that would combine to average 69.6 points per game against a mediocre defensive squad. The Golden Eagles are also 8-2 at home this season where they are limiting opponents to just 61.1 points per game on 39.5% shooting from the field and 30.8% from beyond the arc. Overall, the Eagles are 6.2 points per game better than average defensively, which is certainly good enough to contain a decent Georgetown attack that is 7.0 points per game better than average (71.9 points per game against teams that would combine to allow 64.9 points per game).

Marquette is currently in possession of the top scoring defense in the Big East Conference and the squad’s field goal percentage defense (.397) is second. The Golden Eagles are allowing opponents to shoot just 29.3 percent (2nd) from long distance in conference outings and the team’s 8.2 steals per contest is the second‐best mark among the ten programs. Marquette’s recent defensive success is due to the team’s ability to switch between zone (2‐3 and 1‐3‐1) and man‐to‐man looks. Meanwhile, Marquette’s offense is led by two outstanding guards in Matt Carlino (13.9 ppg) and Duane Wilson (11.1 ppg).

Overall, Marquette is 1.4 points per game better than average offensively (67.1 points per game against teams that would combine to allow 65.7 points per game, although the Golden Eagles are averaging 70.5 points per game at home on 46.9% shooting from the field. Finally, Marquette takes the floor with legitimate revenge after suffering a 65-59 loss at Georgetown on January 6, which is significant in that the Eagles are 8-2 SU and ATS with same-season conference revenge from a loss of eight points or less, together with a 7-0 ATS mark versus opponents off a win.

Meanwhile, Georgetown is ripe for a letdown after destroying Villanova at home as 4-point underdogs earlier this week, and the Hoyas also have a same-season revenger against Xavier on deck. Take Marquette in today’s NCAA basketball affair and invest with confidence.