The Betting Market still Disrespects USC

Nov 12, 2013

There is no question that interim head coach Ed Orgeron has regained the trust of USC’s locker room, which was badly missing under former head coach Lane Kiffin.  Indeed, the Trojans have reeled off three consecutive wins over Utah (19-3), Oregon State (31-14) and California (62-28), two of which were on the road in less than desirable circumstances. Pro Edge Sports has been following USC very closely this season, and we believe the Trojans remain undervalued by the sports betting market.

Over the last three weeks, USC is averaging 37.3 points per game at 5.1 yards per carry, 8.8 yards per pass attempt, 6.6 yards per play and 12.8 yards per point.  Those explosive numbers substantiate the fact that the Trojans are finally playing up to their potential under coach Orgeron.  Overall, USC is 0.7 yards per rush play, 0.8 yards per pass attempt and 0.6 yards per play better than average offensively so the Trojans are a very good team from the line of scrimmage.

Despite its early-season struggles, USC continued to play well on defense as the Trojans limited opponents to 19.6 points per game at 3.6 yards per carry, 6.0 yards per pass play and 4.9 yards per play.  During their current three-game winning streak, the Trojans are limiting opponents to just 15.0 points per game at an incredible 5.4 yards per pass attempt and 4.3 yards per play!  Overall, USC is 0.6 yards per rush play, 1.1 yards per pass play and 0.9 yards per play better than average defensively in 2013.

In what is expected to be a great game, USC welcomes Stanford on Saturday, and the Cardinal are still celebrating their upset win over Oregon on national television last week.  Let’s take a look at this matchup breaks down from the line of scrimmage:

USC Offense vs. Stanford Defense:

  • -0.8 yards per rush play disadvantage
  • -1.2 yards per pass attempt disadvantage
  • -0.9 yards per play disadvantage overall

While it certainly appears like USC will struggle to move the ball, it should be noted that the Cardinal are allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 65.7% of their passes on the road (63.3% overall in 2013).  The numbers above also fail to take into account the current form of USC’s offense, which is off-the-charts good.

USC Defense vs. Stanford Offense:

  • +0.0 yards per rush play advantage
  • -0.5 yards per pass attempt disadvantage
  • +0.0 yards per play advantage overall

The technical analysis also seems to favor USC as the Trojans are 21-9 ATS after scoring 42 or more points, 17-4 ATS at home after covering the point spread in two or more consecutive games and 10-2 ATS at home off a road win by 28 or more points.  Pro Edge Sports has an early lean on USC at +3.5 or more.