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San Diego right-hander Dinelson Lamet enters tonight’s game with a 6.60 ERA in 30.0 innings of work, but his surface numbers are grossly misleading based upon an extremely unlucky 48.5% strand rate. The 24-year-old has posted elite strikeout numbers (12.60 K/9) in San Diego, which is consistent with his 29.9% strikeout rate in Triple-A.
Lamet’s 3.35 SIERA is much more indicative of his skill set, and he is coming off a solid start versus the Tigers against whom he allowed three runs (2 earned) on three hits and one walk with five strikeouts across six innings. It was also the first time in six big league starts that Lamet did not yield a home run.
Lamet’s command and control have gradually improved in each start, posting 1.80 BB/9, 0.00 BB/9 and 1.50 BB/9 rates, respectively, in his last three outings. San Diego’s bullpen is in excellent form, garnering a 2.25 ERA and 0.75 WHIP over the last seven games (also own a 3.67 ERA and 1.23 WHIP at night).
Atlanta southpaw Jaime Garcia toes the rubber with a 4.03 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 4.39 FIP, 4.34 xFIP and a 4.67 SIERA in fourteen starts. The veteran hurler’s walks are up (3.52 BB/9), his strikeouts are down (6.52 K/9) and his fly ball rate has gradually ticked up. However, his elite 23.2% soft contact rate is his best since 2011 and his ground ball rate (55.7%) remains strong.
Garcia enters tonight’s game in poor form with a 7.41 ERA and 1.64 WHIP in his last three starts, including allowing 12 earned runs on fourteen hits in his last two outings (10.0 IP). From a technical standpoint, the Braves are a money-burning 30-61 in game 3 of a series and 1-5 in umpire Jim Reynolds’ last six games behind home plate.
With San Diego standing at 6-2 in its last eight games versus .499 or worse opposition and 6-2 in its last eight home games, take the Padres as one of Oskeim Sports’ Daily Sports Picks and invest with confidence.
Oskeim Sports’ Daily Sports Picks for Thursday, June 29:
San Diego Padres (-108) over Atlanta Braves
Tampa Bay Rays/Pittsburgh Pirates UNDER 8 runs (-110)*
*The UNDER is 11-4-1 in Pittsburgh’s last sixteen games overall, 11-4-1 in Pittsburgh’s last sixteen interleague home games, 6-1 in Pittsburgh’s last seven home games versus right-handed starters and 7-2-2 in Jameson Taillon’s last nine starts. The UNDER is 6-0 in the Rays’ last six interleague road games, 8-3-1 in the Rays’ last twelve affairs against National League Central foes and 20-7 in the Rays’ last 28 interleague road games versus right-handed starters.