Air Force is 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS this season and remains grossly undervalued by the betting market. The Falcons are averaging 32.6 points per game at 5.0 yards per rush play, 8.3 yards per pass play and 5.7 yards per game and should have success moving the ball against a mediocre Utah State stop unit. Indeed, the Aggies are yielding 4.6 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 4.6 yards per play, thereby making them average defensively from the line of scrimmage.
The concern for Air Force is the fact that the Aggies’ run defense is limiting opponents to a mere 38 yards at 1.4 yards per carry at home this season. Utah State’s secondary is also limiting opposing quarterbacks to a 44.3% completion rate within the friendly confines of Romney Stadium.
Utah State takes the field with a subpar offense that is guided by backup quarterback Darrell Garretson, who threw for 321 yards and three touchdowns against BYU last week. Overall, the Aggies are averaging 4.0 yards per rush play, 6.5 yards per pass play and 5.2 yard per play against teams that would combine to allow 4.2 yards per rush attempt, 6.6 yards per pass attempt and 5.3 yards per play.
Overall, Utah State is 0.2 yards per rush play, 0.1 yards per pass play and 0.1 yards per play worse than average offensively this season, which is not good enough to exploit a worse-than average Air Force defense that is 0.1 yards per play worse than average (5.7 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 5.6 yards per play).
The good news for Air Force investors is the fact that the Falcons are limiting conference opponents to just 15.5 points per game at 2.7 yards per rush play, 5.3 yards per play and 25.8 yards per point. The Falcons also enjoy playing on artificial turf where they are 3-1 this season and yielding just 17.0 points per game at 5.2 yards per play and 21.4 yards per point. I don’t see either team’s offense having much success on the offensive side of the ball Saturday night.
From a technical standpoint, Air Force is 11-3 SU and 8-6 ATS after playing Navy for the Commander-in-Chief Trophy, including 4-1 SU following a win so I don’t anticipate a letdown from the Falcons tonight. Meanwhile, Utah State is coming off an impressive 35-20 upset win at BYU as 21-point underdogs, which is bad news for the Aggies as home teams off a straight-up win as an underdog of 20 or more points are a money-burning 6-15 ATS since 2000.
Due to Air Force’s struggles against the Vegas number over the last three seasons – 9-21 ATS overall – the Falcons have finally become undervalued in the betting market in 2014. Now is the perfect time to buy low so let’s grab the generous points with the Falcons and invest with confidence.