Tuesday’s Baseball Betting Report & Free Sports Pick

Jul 8, 2014

Pro Edge Sports is bullish on Los Angeles right-hander Tyler Skaggs, who possesses the requisite skill set to succeed at the highest level of baseball.  Sports bettors will likely avoid Skaggs in light of his 4.16 ERA and 1.19 WHIP over thirteen starts this season, but that decision could be costly as the 22-year-old’s underlying metrics suggest a very strong second half to the season.

Tyler Skaggs’ Metrics: Breakout on the Horizon

  • 3.65 xFIP overall in 2014
  • 3.77 SIERA overall in 2014

Skaggs landed on the disabled list back on June 10 with a strained right hamstring, but he returned to action on July 2 versus the White Sox against whom he allowed two runs on five hits in 7 2/3-innings of work (6/1 K/BB).  “I was kind of locked into the game, just excited to pitch after a month,” Skaggs said.  “It has been a long time.  The team has been winning and I want to be a part of that.  I was like a kid in a candy store, I was so excited.”
Skaggs has a bright future ahead of him, and his elite ground-ball rate (53%) and excellent command and control further enhance his value from a betting perspective.  Skaggs’ only career meeting with the Blue Jays was a 5-3 win at Toronto on May 10 in which he allowed three runs – two earned – and four hits in eight innings (2.25 ERA; 0.50 WHIP).

Meanwhile, Toronto knuckle-baller R.A. Dickey takes the mound with a 4.10 ERA and 1.35 WHIP, including a 4.78 ERA and 1.57 WHIP on the road and a 4.15 ERA and 1.20 WHIP over his last three starts.  Dickey is who he is – a middle-of-the-rotation starter who eats innings and gives his team with a chance to win.  His metrics – 4.26 xFIP and 4.23 SIERA, confirm the pedestrian nature of Dickey’s arsenal.  Even more alarming is Dickey’s underlying metrics on the road where he owns a 5.01 xFIP and 4.85 FIP this season.  A 6.86 FIP in the month of June also raises red flags for any sports bettors thinking about investing on the 39-year-old.

Pitching aside, these two teams are heading in opposite directions.  Los Angeles has won twenty of its last 22 home games (16-1 L/17) and have scored five or more runs in nine consecutive home contests.  The Angels have also won eleven straight home games and possess baseball’s best home record at 31-14.  “If you get momentum and some confidence going, and guys start feeling good and kind of feed off each other in the dugout and in the locker room, it’s fun to be a part of,” left fielder Josh Hamilton said.  For the technical sports bettors out there, here are some very strong trends:

  • Los Angeles is 11-1 in its L/12 home games vs. right-handed starters;
  • Los Angeles is 25-7 in its L/32 games as a home favorite;
  • Los Angeles is 21-8 in its L/29 games overall in 2014;
  • Los Angeles is 5-0 in Skaggs’ L/5 starts as a home favorite;
  • Los Angeles is 4-1 in Skaggs’ L/5 starts in game 2 of a series;
  • Toronto is 1-10 in its L/11 road games;
  • Toronto is 0-8 in its L/8 road games vs. a team with a winning record;
  • Toronto is 1-8 in Dickey’s L/9 road starts;
  • Toronto is 0-7 in Dickey’s L/7 starts as a road underdog of +150 or less

Dickey can’t seem to buy a win on the road this season, and the fact that he has yielded a staggering 13 home runs in his last 53 2/3-innings also raises concerns.  Let’s also note that Dickey has allowed a combined 14 earned runs on 20 hits in his last three outings against Los Angeles, a period spanning sixteen innings.  The Angels are 7-1 in the last eight meetings in this series and they have swept four of their last five home series.  We hope you enjoyed this betting report!

Pro Edge Sports Pick: Los Angeles Angels (-149)