With March Madness right around the corner, prospective clients continue to inquire about my exclusive 5 Star Club. The 5 Star Club averages 4-6 selections per month and is reserved for serious sports investors and high rollers alike. Indeed, the 5 Star Club has produced a documented 62% winners since 2008, while earning 22 distinguished awards from The Sports Monitor of Oklahoma since 2007. I strongly recommend a 5 Star Club Subscription to most clients because it provides full site access (all sports), including the coveted 5 Star Club releases. For added convenience, all 5 Star Club selections are delivered by way of private email and/or text message. Finally, all 5 Star Club investments are supported by unprecedented analytical research and analysis that incorporates fundamental, situational and technical handicapping. On Thursday, February 25, 2011, I released two 5 Star Club NCAA Basketball investments to my clients:
Louisiana-Lafayette (ML) (-140) over Denver
Investment Advice: Please be advised that this is a money line investment. The Ragin’ Cajuns are a 5* investment at -155 odds or better.
Analysis: Louisiana-Lafayette first year head coach Bob Marlin is a proven winner as he delivered a national championship at Pensacola Junior College in 1993 before winning three Southland Conference titles at Sam Houston State, including two NCAA Tournament appearances. Now, Marlin’s Ragin’ Cajuns own the nation’s second-longest win streak (9 games) behind George Mason, while covering the spread in nine of their last ten games. From a fundamental standpoint, Lafayette has a substantially better offense as the Ragin’ Cajuns are averaging 78.2 points per game at home this season, whereas the Pioneers are averaging just 53.7 points per game on the road. Overall, Lafayette is 0.8 points per game better than average offensively, whereas the Pioneers are 7.9 points per game worse than average on the offensive end of the floor. Let’s also note that Lafayette is averaging 38 rebounds per game (11 offensive), while the Pioneers are pulling down a meager 24 rebounds per game (4 offensive). Indeed, Lafayette leads the Sun Belt Conference in offensive rebounding percentage (.367) and is ranked third in blocked shots (4.3 per game).
Denver continues to struggle without floor general Nate Rohnert who led the Pioneers in scoring (14.5 ppg), rebounding (5.7 rpg) and assists (3.8 apg) last season, and his 211 free throw attempts were 26 more than any two teammates combined. “Nate made big shots and did get to the line a lot,” Denver head coach Joe Scott said. “He got us some baskets in different ways. Who’s going to be able to do that for us – be able to get us a cheap basket? That’s going to be a big part of us developing our identity as the year goes along.” Unfortunately for Scott, Denver continues to struggle to score points as the Pioneers are averaging a woeful 54.2 points over their last five games, including shooting 42% from the field. And, while Denver can be prolific from beyond the arc (41.4% this season; 42.2% over last 5 games), the Ragin’ Cajuns are limiting opponents to just 19.1% shooting from three-point territory over their last five games.
From a technical standpoint, the Ragin’ Cajuns hold a 17-8 advantage in this series, including a 9-1 advantage in Lafayette (5 consecutive wins at CajunDome). In addition, Denver is a money-burning 18-34 ATS over the last two seasons, including 5-13 ATS in competitive games priced between +3 and -3 points. I should also note that the Pioneers are 0-12 ATS as road underdogs of six points or less, 4-14 ATS on the road versus conference opponents, 7-18 ATS following a home game and 0-7 ATS after a loss. In contrast, Lafayette is 7-0 ATS off a home win, 9-1 ATS off a win and 9-2 ATS after covering the spread in two or more consecutive games. The Ragin’ Cajuns also apply to a very good 37-11 ATS revenge situation of mine that is predicated upon their 65-52 loss at Denver back in December. With Denver losing its last four road games (2-10 overall this year) to Middle Tennessee State (59-49), Arkansas-Little Rock (75-72), Arkansas State (60-35) and Troy (64-55), take the surging Ragin’ Cajuns to win in convincing fashion before the home faithful.
Rating: 5*
FINAL SCORE: LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE 58 – DENVER 52
USC (pk) (-110) over Arizona
Investment Advice: The Trojans are a 5* investment at -1 or better. Be patient before investing as this line should increase before game time. In the event your line moves to +1.5-points, I strongly recommend buying a 1/2-point and taking the Trojans at +2. Conversely, if USC becomes a favorite, I recommend taking the Trojans on the money line.
Analysis: USC is making a late-season push to become a legitimate bubble team for the upcoming NCAA Tournament following impressive road wins over California (78-75) and Stanford (69-53). Let’s not forget that USC has already defeated Texas (73-56), Tennessee (65-64) and UCLA (63-52) this season, and the Trojans are very capable of knocking off a surging Arizona squad that is coming off an emotional 87-86 win over Washington on Saturday. The Trojans’ success this season is predicated upon an outstanding defense that is allowing a mere 63 points per game to teams that combine to average 71.6 points per game against mediocre defensive squads. At home, USC is limiting opponents to 58.4 points per game, including 38% shooting from the field. Overall, the Trojans are 7.6 points per game better than average defensively, which is certainly good enough to limit an Arizona offense that is 8.6 points per game better than average this season. Let’s also note that USC is allowing 63.6 points per game to conference opponents and 61.8 points over its last five games, whereas the Wildcats are yielding 71.6 points per game on the road, 71.9 points per game to conference foes and 76.4 points over their last five games.
USC, which stands at 10-4 at home this season and 16-6 ATS as an underdog over the last two seasons, also applies to a very good 63-17-2 ATS momentum situation of mine that invests on certain home underdogs off two or more consecutive SU and ATS wins, provided our ‘play on’ team was installed as an underdog in each of its two previous wins. In contrast, Arizona falls into a negative 3-24-1 ATS road letdown (and look-ahead) situation that is based upon the Wildcats’ back-to-back home wins against Washington State and Washington. This angle is also triggered by the fact that Arizona has a huge game against UCLA on deck, which certainly raises the question of whether the Wildcats will look past a 15-12 USC squad that they already defeated 82-73 in January.
Finally, my math model calls this game even from a point spread perspective so we are getting a little line value with the home underdog tonight. Grab the point(s) and invest with confidence as the Trojans keep their NCAA Tournament hopes alive with a convincing win over Arizona.
Rating: 5*
FINAL SCORE: USC 65 – ARIZONA 57
If you are interested in joining the most exclusive sports investment Club on the internet, simply visit Oskeim Sports at http://oskeimsportspicks.com to learn more about the 5 Star Club. You will never find 62% documented winners in a casino or on the stock market. As always, if you have any questions or concerns, please do not hesitate to contact me at your convenience – 1-888-254-0117.