Saturday’s Free Sports Pick: Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox

Jun 29, 2013

Boston Red Sox (-145) over Toronto Blue Jays

Analysis: Toronto is one of the biggest disappointments of the 2013 campaign as the Blue Jays are one game under .500 and continue to struggle at the plate. Indeed, Toronto is batting .249 with a .310 on base percentage this season (4.6 runs per game), including hitting .238 with a .295 on base percentage on the road (4.0 runs per game), .258 with a .301 on base percentage versus left-handed starters (4.4 runs per game) and .216 with a .293 on base percentage over the last ten days (4.4 runs per game). In contrast, the Red Sox are a profitable 27-15 (+4.1 units) at home where they are batting .289 with a .357 on base percentage (5.3 runs per game). Moreover, the Red Sox are 35-22 (+8.4 units) versus right-handed starters against whom they are hitting .282 with a .351 on base percentage (5.5 runs per game) and 5-2 over their last seven games in which they are batting .365 with a .417 on base percentage (6.9 runs per game).

Meanwhile, Toronto right-hander Esmil Rogers is a money-burning 1-11 (-10.2 units) versus division opponents and 3-9 (-5.7 units) as an underdog of +150 or less in his career.  And, speaking of Rogers, he is far more suitable as a reliever based upon his historical performance in a team’s starting rotation:

Esmil Rogers’ Results as a Starter:

2011: 5-6 with a 6.28 ERA and 1.81 WHIP (71.2 IP; 50 ER; 92 H)

2010: 1-2 with a 6.34 ERA and 1.75 WHIP (38.1 IP; 27 ER; 54 H)

Rogers now faces a difficult task in taming one of the American League’s best offenses in Boston as the Red Sox are averaging 5.3 runs per game at home and 5.5 runs per game versus right-handed starters.  In fact, Boston has won 14 of its last 18 games at home over which time the Red Sox are batting .319.  Jacoby Ellsbury has hit .414 over his last thirteen home games, Dustin Pedroia has batted .374 at Fenway this season and David Ortiz is batting .351 during a nine-game hitting streak at home.  Boston southpaw Felix Doubront has always possesses above-average skills and seems to be putting it all together this season.  Specifically, Doubront has garnered a 2.97 ERA and 1.02 WHIP at home (33.3 IP; 11 ER; 21 H; 34 K) and a 2.55 ERA and 1.07 WHIP over his last three starts (17.7 IP; 5 ER; 14 H; 13 K).  From a technical standpoint, Doubront is 4-1 versus division opponents, 4-1 as a home favorite and 3-0 with a total between 8.5 and 10 runs this season.  Take the Red Sox and invest with confidence.

I am a profitable 221-166-5 (57.6%) on my free sports picks after Friday’s winner on the Colorado Rockies.  Assuming you risked 1 unit per selection, a $500 sports investor would be up over $15,200 since June 7, 2007.

Felix Doubront Tampa Bay Rays v Boston Red Sox