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San Francisco Looks to Win its Home Opener Behind Tim Hudson

San Francisco starter Tim Hudson is 80-27 (+28.2 units) at home versus teams with a losing record, 75-29 (+32.1 units) at home during the first half of the season, 56-20 (++23.6 units) in afternoon home games, 68-27 (+25.0 units) following a loss and 55-22 (+24.1 units) at home with a total between 7 and 7.5 runs.  Hudson’s impeccable command and control, together with his elite groundball rate, allow him to remain a top-level pitcher in the majors despite his age.

Hudson’s Groundball Rate:

  • 2010: 64%
  • 2011: 57%
  • 2012: 55%
  • 2013: 56%

Hudson is 8-1 with a 1.99 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in twelve career starts versus the Diamondbacks, including an outing earlier this month wherein he threw 7.7 innings of shutout ball against Arizona (3 H; 7/0 K/BB).  The fact that Hudson did not issue a walk in his last outing is significant in that he is an incredible 48-16 (+26.5 units) after a game in which he did not walk a batter. Hudson should continue his domination over a scuffling Arizona lineup that is batting .249 with a .302 on base percentage this season (3.9 runs per game), including hitting .226 with a .294 on base percentage on the road (3.4 runs per game) and .231 with a .259 on base percentage versus right-handed starters (3.0 runs per game).  Let’s also note that Hudson is 34-16 (+16.9 units) over the last three seasons, including a perfect 9-0 versus division opponents and 9-0 at home.

Meanwhile, Arizona right-hander Trevor Cahill is coming off a terrible spring wherein he was 1-2 with a 6.95 ERA and 1.82 WHIP over 22 innings pitched (34 H; 17 ER; 4 HR; 22/6 K/BB ratio). The start of the 2014 campaign has not been much better for the 26-year-old as evidenced by the fact that Cahill has posted a 6.30 ERA and 1.90 WHIP in his first two starts.  Moreover, Cahill has yielded a combined eight earned runs on 16 hits in his last three starts at AT&T Park, a period covering 17.3 innings of work.  I also like the fact that Arizona is 3-8 in Cahill’s last eleven road starts and 2-8 in his last ten starts as a road underdog.  Cahill is also hampered by a terrible Arizona bullpen that owns a 6.11 ERA and 1.75 WHIP this season, including a 7.36 ERA and 1.98 WHIP in day games and an 8.53 ERA and 1.95 WHIP over the last seven games.

Finally, Tim Hudson has enjoyed tremendous success at AT&T Park.  In 2010, he garnered a 2.57 ERA; in 2011 he posted a 2.08 ERA; and in 2012 he boasted a 1.29 ERA.  Even more remarkable is the fact that Hudson issued just one walk over those 22.2 innings pitched within the confines of AT&T Park.  Hudson is also supported by a very good San Francisco bullpen that owns a 3.27 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in 2014, including a 1.12 ERA and 0.63 WHIP in day games.  With San Francisco standing at a profitable 49-34 (+14.2 units) versus division foes over the last two season, take the Giants to win their home opener and invest with confidence.

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