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The technical analysis strongly favors the Jets in this game. New York is 11-0-1 ATS as a home underdog following a loss in which it did not cover the spread. Since 2014, the Jets are a perfect 7-0 ATS following back-to-back SU and ATS losses, including winning their past two games under these circumstances by at least two touchdowns.
The Jets are a perfect 10-0 ATS at home following a home game in which they were underdogs versus opponents that (a) are allowing fewer than 24 points per game on the season; (b) has a greater win percentage, and (c) has not won their past five games straight-up.
New York is a perfect 2-0 SU in this spot this season, defeating the Jaguars 23-20 as 3-point underdogs and taking down the Bills 34-21 as three-point underdogs.
Interestingly, the Jets are once again installed as three-point underdogs on Sunday and should improve to 11-0 ATS under the foregoing system. Meanwhile, Kansas City applies to a negative 0-12 ATS situation that invests against certain NFL favorites off an upset loss in which they struggled to convert third downs.
The Chiefs are still above .500 on the season but that doesn’t necessarily bode well for them in that .501 or greater squads off consecutive losses are a money-burning 17-47-2 ATS on the road as underdogs of less than six points (or favorites).
The Jets have lost five of their last six games, but all five defeats were by eight points or less. After a blistering 5-0 start and being anointed Super Bowl favorites, the Chiefs have dropped five of their last 6 games.
Kansas City is allowing 373 total yards per game at 5.8 yards per play to teams that would combine to average just 5.6 yards per play against a mediocre stop unit. The Jets’ attack has been solid at home where they are averaging 130 rushing yards at 4.4 yards per carry, 239 passing yards at 7.5 yards per completion with a 68.6% completion rate and 369 total yards at 6.0 yards per play.
In contrast, Kansas City managed just one first down in the first half of last week’s home loss to a Buffalo squad that had yielded 135 points in their previous three games.
Over the last four weeks, the Chiefs are minus-32 yards per game despite playing a significantly easier schedule than the Jets, who were plus-3 yards per game in that span.
One week after its shocking loss to the hapless Giants, Kansas City scored just ten points on 236 total yards against the Bills. The Chiefs’ sudden lack of offense can be attributed to their inability to develop game plans that can exploit Cover 2 defensive schemes.
Indeed, opposing teams have been employing Cover 2 against the Chiefs over the last two months. The results have been startling. In the first five weeks of the season, Kareem Hunt averaged 3.88 yards per carry before first contact – the third-best mark in the NFL.
In Weeks Six through Twelve, Hunt has averaged 1.37 yards per carry before first contact – the 41st-best figure in the league. “Teams are running Cover 2. Until we can beat Cover 2, we’re going to struggle,” Kansas City tight end Travis Kelce said.
The problem is that Andy Reid has had six weeks to figure this out and hasn’t been able to do so despite having weapons like Hunt, Kelce and Tyreek Hill. Quarterback Alex Smith only generated 12 points per game in the month of November and has returned to his dink and dunk approach.
The Jets are a profitable 11-4-2 ATS in their last 17 December affairs, 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games versus teams with a winning road mark and 6-1 ATS in their last seven home contests.
New York has held fourth-quarter leads against the Patriots, Falcons and Panthers, and I expect the Jets to secure their fifth win of the 2017-18 campaign on Sunday afternoon.
Finally, New York quarterback Josh McCown is 9-3 ATS at home during the month of December, including 6-3 SU and 8-1 ATS against .665 or worse opposition.
With head coach Todd Bowles standing at 14-8 ATS at home in his career, including 3-0 ATS as an underdog following a home tilt, grab the points with the Jets as one of Oskeim Sports’ NFL picks for Sunday, December 3.
Oskeim Sports’ Free NFL Picks:
- New York Jets (+3/+3.5)
- Denver Broncos (-1.5)