The Sweet 16 Round of the NCAA Tournament can be an uncertain time for favorites, especially those from power conferences that must face surging mid-major squads. Oskeim Sports’ expert handicappers provide NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 betting tips to help bettors increase their return on investment during the tournament.
America’s most wagered-on competition?
The Sweet 16 Round of the NCAA Tournament has quickly earned a reputation as being “America’s most wagered-on competition,” as bettors are expected to place over $15.5 billion worth of wagers this week, according to an industry group for sports betting. That figure is five times higher than what was wager on during Super Bowl 51!
The Sweet 16 vs. National Championship odds
Bettors have primarily focused on national championship odds, but there can also be great value in betting on Sweet 16 games. While cashing a national championship futures bet is difficult, correctly predicting winners in the Sweet 16 Round provides an edge for bettors who use the correct strategy.
One key factor in predicting upsets in the Sweet 16 Round is a team’s balance between their offense and defense; generally, teams with the most point spread success have balanced ratings in both categories. An effective strategy for finding underrated teams with high odds of making the Sweet 16 is using objective predictive measures like betting odds or algorithmic projections and comparing these with public betting trends.
Sweet 16 bracket facts
- A double-digit seed has advanced to the Sweet 16 in fifteen consecutive tournaments and 36 of 38 overall
- Four teams seeded 10th or worse reached the Sweet 16 in both 2021 and 2022
- At least one No. 11 seed has made the Sweet 16 in seven of the past nine tournaments
- All four No. 2 seeds have reached the Sweet 16 just twice in the past 26 tournaments
- Since 2011, the same number of No. 15 seeds have reached the Sweet 16 Round as No. 12 seeds (four)
Sweet 16 conference facts
- The ACC has had multiple teams reach the Sweet 16 in 32 of 38 tournaments
- Just four Big Ten Conference teams have reached the Sweet 16 in the past three years
- The Pac-12 hasn’t had a school advance past the Sweet 16 in four of the past five tournaments
Sweet 16 team facts
- Alabama has not advanced past the Sweet 16 in five previous trips as a top-4 seed
- Clemson has not advanced past the Sweet 16 since 1980
- Florida has reached the Sweet 16 eleven times, but only once as a No. 7 seed or worse
- Houston has reached four consecutive Sweet 16s
- Texas Tech has advanced to at least the Sweet 16 Round in three of its past four appearances
Sweet 16 betting trends
- The better seed is 41-19 SU and 30-28-2 ATS since 2008
- When No. 1 seeds score 70-plus points, they are 27-4 SU and 21-10 ATS
- When No. 1 seeds score fewer than 70 points, they are 11-8SU and 6-12-1 ATS
- No. 1 seeds are 27-21-1 ATS, including 14-9-1 ATS since 2015
- No. 1 seeds are 23-8 ATS coming off back-to-back SU and ATS wins
- No. 3 seeds are 9-20 ATS as favorites
- No. 4 seeds are 6-13-2 ATS over the last nine years
- No. 6 seeds coming off a double-digit ATS win are 3-9 ATS
- Favorites of fewer than four points coming off a game in which they covered the spread by double-digits are 17-7-1 ATS since 2005
- Underdogs coming off a win by fewer than three points are 13-5-1 ATS since 2012
- Teams coming off a game in which they scored more than 90 points are 3-9 ATS since 2011
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