Baltimore Orioles at Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview – 9/22

Sep 22, 2021

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Game: Baltimore Orioles at Philadelphia Phillies 

Time: 7:05 PM ET 

Starting Pitchers: Keegan Akin vs. Zack Wheeler 

Odds: Orioles +279, Phillies -300 

With a little over a week remaining in the 2021 MLB season, the Philadelphia Phillies still have a shot at winning the NL East. They conclude a three-game series with the Baltimore Orioles tonight and need a win to keep the dream alive.

The Orioles were eliminated from playoff contention a long time ago and they have the worst record in the American League. Philadelphia blew a shot at a series sweep when they lost the opener 2-0. The Phillies rebounded with a 3-2 win last night thanks to a walk-off two-run triple by J.T. Realmuto. 

The Phillies will have the pitching advantage tonight. They will start Zack Wheeler who is 14-9 this season with a 2.83 ERA. Wheeler seems to have gotten even better down the stretch. Consider his performance in his last three starts for the Phillies. In 17.2 innings of work, Wheeler has allowed just two earned runs, struck out 23 batters, and earned three straight wins over Milwaukee, Colorado, and the New York Mets. 

Wheeler will face a Baltimore lineup that is 26th in the majors in runs per game (4.12). Over their last ten games, Baltimore has scored more than three runs in a game just twice. The Orioles are averaging 3.1 runs per game in those ten games. With Wheeler in the zone as of late, don’t expect much from a weak Baltimore lineup. 

On the other side, left-hander Keegan Akin gets the start for the Orioles. If there is an opposite to Wheeler right now, it is Akin. He has had a few good starts as late as August, but recently Akin has not been very good.

It’s no surprise as Baltimore has the absolute worst pitching staff in MLB. For the season, Baltimore is 4-12 in the 16 games that Akin has started this season. That includes a 1-2 mark in his last three starts, which have been a collective train wreck.  

In 14 total innings, Akin has given up 11 earned runs – an ERA of 7.07. Baltimore lost games to Toronto (11-2) and Boston (7-1). Akin allowed four earned runs in just four innings to the Yankees but the Orioles somehow figured out a way to beat New York 8-7. 

Akin wasn’t involved in the decision, which is too bad. He could use a win to boost his current 2-10 record. Akin’s ERA for the season is 6.93 which contributes to Baltimore’s major league-leading staff ERA of 5.90. Not a single Baltimore starting pitcher has a winning record.  

The two teams have combined for just seven total runs this series. The Under is 6-2 in the Orioles last eight games. Philadelphia had a stretch of 18 innings without a run. As a result, the Under is 4-1 in their last five games. The Under has also trended when these two teams meet. In the last 10 games played by Baltimore and Philly, the Under has cashed seven times.