It’s going to be a “White Out” in Taco Bell Arena for Boise State’s home game versus No. 5-ranked San Diego State. The Broncos are hungry to avenge their 69-66 loss at San Diego State on January 8, and coach Leon Rice’s squad certainly possesses the talent to hand the Aztecs their second loss of the season.
Boise State Offense:
Boise State is averaging 78.0 points per game against teams that would combine to allow 71.2 points per game, thereby making the Broncos 6.8 points per game better than average offensively this season. More importantly, the Broncos are 10-2 at home where they are averaging 80.8 points peer game on 46.1% shooting from the field and 37.9% from beyond the arc. And, in what is expected to be an extremely competitive game, Boise State holds a significant edge from the foul line where the Broncos are shooting 75.1% on the year. In contrast, San Diego State is shooting just 65.1% from the charity stripe.
Boise State’s attack revolves around Ryan Watkins, who is one of of only fifteen players in Division I averaging a double-double (11.4 points and 10.8 rebounds per game). Watkins has recorded a double-double in six consecutive games, and is the only player in the nation to have recorded six double-doubles against conference opponents. Watkins has also dominated the boards as evidenced by the fact that he has had at least sixteen rebounds in three straight games.
Boise State Defense:
Boise State also possess a decent defense that is allowing 68.3 points per game to teams that would combine to average 72.5 points per game. However, the Broncos play their best defense at home where they are limiting opponents to just 65.6 points per game on 43.8% shooting from the field. And, those defensive numbers are good enough to contain a very pedestrian San Diego State attack that is 2.2 points per game better than average (73.7 points per game against teams that would combine to allow 71.5 points per game). San Diego State’s offense also arrives in town in poor form as the Aztecs are averaging just 69.0 points over their last five games on 37.2% shooting from the floor and 21.2% from three-point territory.
From a technical standpoint, Boise State applies to a very good 87-31 ATS bounce-back situation that plays on certain home favorites off a loss, provided they are matched up against an opponent off two or more consecutive wins. This system improves to a near-perfect 13-1 ATS if the opponent owns a win percentage of .849 or greater.
Pro Edge Sports Pick: Boise State (-2) (-110)