NFL win totals markets offer another popular futures option for NFL bettors. The great thing about betting win totals is that bettors can take advantage of a team’s poor performance as well as on its success. In order to have success betting NFL win totals, there are a number of factors to consider before placing the wager.
Offseason Moves
A few things happen each offseason that will influence how an NFL team plays the following season. Free agency is one. The first day of a new NFL year is usually in mid-March. This year, that day was March 16. That day also marks the first day that free agents are able to sign new contracts. It is also the first day that trades can occur.
The other big thing that happens in the NFL offseason is the annual draft. This occurs in late April, most often over the final weekend of the month. There will be a handful of impact rookies that will make a difference in how well – or how bad – a team plays the following season.
Take New England QB Mac Jones. He was a rookie last season and his play in 2021 helped the Patriots go 10-7 and make the playoffs after they had missed the postseason in 2020. The same can be true of impact trades. Former Super Bowl-winning quarterback Russell Wilson was traded from Seattle to Denver. That move will have a huge impact on the Broncos in 2022.
The League Schedule
Every May, the NFL schedule is released. A team’s schedule plays a big role in their win total for the upcoming season. Remember, teams now play 17 games instead of 16. Every team’s schedule starts with two games each against the other teams in their division. That’s six games right there.
Buffalo, this season’s overall favorite to win the Super Bowl, will play two games each against the Jets, Dolphins, and Patriots. Playing in the AFC East could give the Bills six wins right off the bat.
Teams then play each team in another division within their conference. That’s four more games. Then, teams crossover to play all four teams in a division in the other conference. Sticking with the Bills, they will play the AFC North and the NFC North among their 17 games.
On the Rise or Not
Some teams can be identified as “on the rise.” It could be a new coach has taken over and he is building a winner. Think about the San Francisco 49ers of the 1980s. The 49ers weren’t very good in the 1970s, but a young coach named Bill Walsh took over and began building what would become one of the NFL’s great dynasties. In the late 1970s, the 49ers were on the rise.
This works in reverse too. Star players retire or they leave a team in free agency. Sometimes, they are traded. Whatever happens, things change and teams that were winning fall on difficult times. In 2017, the Jacksonville Jaguars played for the AFC championship. Just three seasons later, the Jags won one game and only three last season. Where a team is in relation to its long-term goals is a consideration to make when betting NFL win totals.
Shop for the Best Line
Whether you are betting on a game’s point spread or NFL win totals, shop around for the best line. If the Bills’ win total is set at 11.5 and the Over is given -135 odds at one sportsbook, finding the same bet at another sportsbook for -125 saves the bettor $10.
Keep in mind, sportsbooks are attempting to attract equal action on both sides of a bet. Shopping for the best line can find bettors a better deal on a regular season NFL win total.