Welcome to Oskeim Sports’ Betting Market Report & Free Picks for Monday, April 22! Oskeim’s award-winning sports handicappers provide bettors with valuable information on Monday’s games. Be sure to check out Oskeim’s premium sports picks for sale at the online store!
Philadelphia 76ers at New York Knicks UNDER 207.5 points (-110)
Report: Since 2004, NBA contests between teams whose season game totals combine to average 437 or more points are 1152-940-70 to the Under (55.1%) with totals of less than 223 points. Since 2004, NBA contests between teams whose season game totals combine to average 437 or more points are 610-457-36 to the Under (57.2%) with totals of less than 218 points. The under falls into profitable 640-505-41 (55.9%) and 203-168-14 (55%) NBA totals systems of mine that date to 2011. The former situation is 484-376-30 UNDER (56.3%) since 2014. Since 2006, .501 or greater NBA playoff underdogs are 158-119-9 to the Under (57%) versus .501 or greater opponents in games with totals between 195 and 210 points.
However, since 2010, NBA road underdogs averaging 103 or more points allowed per game coming off two or more consecutive games in which they trailed by double-digits at the half are 241-189-16 to the Over (56%), including 117-88-9 OVER (57.1%) since 2020, going over by an average of +2.94 points per game.
Oakland Athletics at New York Yankees (-1.5) (-120)
Report: Since 2006, MLB favorites of -201 or greater in games with totals of eight or more runs are 2396-912 SU (72.4%; +2.3% ROI) and 1765-1336 RL (57%; +3% ROI), including 1264-438 SU (74.3%; +4% ROI) and 999-704 RL (58.7%; +3% ROI) since 2018, winning by an average margin of +2.4 runs per game. Since 2005, MLB favorites of -191 or greater in the first game of a series are 1342-567 SU (70.3%; +1.2% ROI) and 958-774 RL (55.3%; +3.2% ROI), including 640-252 SU (71.7%; +2.4% ROI) and 512-378 RL (57.5%; +4.1% ROI) since 2018, winning by an average of +2.14 runs per game.
Since 2003, .490 or worse road underdogs of +142 or greater off two or more consecutive losses are 1207-2427 SU (33.2%; -8% ROI) and 1588-1440 RL (-2.7% ROI), losing by an average margin of -1.5 runs per game. Since 2006, MLB road underdogs of +130 or greater are 2728-4834 SU (36.1%; -4% ROI) and 3873-3270 RL (-2.4% ROI) versus .551 or greater opponents, including 716-1421 SU (33.5%; -8.5% ROI) and 1075-1058 RL (-6.2% ROI) since 2019, losing by -1.45 runs per game in that span.
The foregoing situation is 840-2043 SU (29.1%; -10.3% ROI) and 1163-1337 RL (-6.2% ROI) as road underdogs of +175 or greater, losing by an average of -1.84 runs per game. Since 2006, MLB road underdogs of +130 or greater are 2373-4217 SU (36%; -4.1% ROI) and 3374-2850 RL (-2.4% ROI) versus .551 or greater league opponents, including 589-1199 SU (32.9%; -9.7% ROI) and 898-886 RL (-6% ROI) since 2019, losing by -1.5 runs per game in that span.
New York Islanders at Carolina Hurricanes (-250)
Report: Since 2003, NHL favorites coming off a win as favorites in which they allowed fewer than three goals are 1398-801 (63.6%; +3% ROI), including 351-187 (65.2%; +2% ROI) since 2019, winning by an average margin of +0.71 goals per game. Since 2014, NHL home favorites of -200 or greater are 1036-411 (71.6%; +1% ROI) versus opponents with revenge, including 302-115 (72.4%; +1% ROI) since 2022, winning by an average of +1.34 goals per game. Since 2012, NHL home favorites of -160 or greater coming off a home game are 198-94 (67.8%) in April affairs, including 105-43 (70.9%) since 2019, winning by an average of +1.4 goals per game.
Finally, Carolina is supported by a very good 697-340 (67.2%) NHL system that invests on certain home favorites.
Toronto Maple Leafs at Boston Bruins (-135)
Report: Since 2010, NHL home favorites are 589-365 (61.7%) versus opponents coming off a four-plus goal blowout loss, including 114-60 (65.5%) since 2022, winning by an average margin of +0.9 goals per game. Since 1998, NHL home favorites are 100-36 (73.5%; +13.4% ROI) versus opponents coming off a blowout loss in January affairs or in postseason play, winning by an average of +1.12 goals per game. Since 2011, the Bruins are 210-116 (64.4%) at home versus teams with revenge, including 124-65 (65.6%) since 2017, winning by an average of +0.9 goals per game.
Since 2009, NHL home favorites of greater than -120 are 120-58 (67.4%; +8.7% ROI) with a road affair against Toronto on deck, including 34-4 (89.5%; +37% ROI) since 2020, winning by an average of +1.97 goals pr game. This situation is 11-1 (91.7%) since November 4, 2023
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