Game: Philadelphia Eagles @ Kansas City Chiefs
Time: 8:15 p.m.
Odds: Eagles +2.5, Chiefs -2.5
Total: 45.5
In the rematch of last year’s Super Bowl, the Kansas City Chiefs (7-2 SU, 6-3 ATS), the defending champion, will face the Philadelphia Eagles (8-1, 5-2-2). Two of the NFL’s best two teams will square off in Week 11 Monday Night Football with the Chiefs as slight home favorites.
In Super Bowl LVII, the Chiefs defeated the Eagles 38-35 as one-point underdogs, despite Philadelphia quarterback Jalen Hurts’ 374 total yards. Patrick Mahomes of Kansas City won the game’s MVP award with three touchdown passes.
Philadelphia’s running game was essentially nonexistent in the Super Bowl without Hurts. On 17 carries, Miles Sanders, Kenneth Gainwell, and Boston Scott combined for 45 yards. Sanders is no longer with the Eagles and was replaced by free agency pickup D’Andre Swift.
After joining from the Detroit Lions, Swift had a great start to the season, but he has since cooled off. He has 62 rushing yards or less in four straight games. The team’s only loss of the season, a 20-14 road loss to the New York Jets in Week 6, featured his worst performance, 10 carries for 18 yards.
Before the bye week, the Kansas City defense made a big statement by defeating the Miami Dolphins 21-14 in Germany and keeping them scoreless in the first half of a game for the first time since Week 2 of 2021. Mahomes’ two touchdown passes in the first half provided the Chiefs’ spark, while Bryan Cook’s fumble return for a touchdown finished the scoring. Chiefs TE Travis Kelce was held to just 14 receiving yards on three catches, both career lows.
Hurts had a sore knee prior to Philadelphia’s bye week, so it would be advantageous if Swift and/or Gainwell could relieve some of the pressure on him in the running game. Hurts’ overwork clearly detracts from the Eagles’ offensive performance, which was evident in the Super Bowl when a crucial fumble allowed the Chiefs to tie the game at 14-14.
Swift needs to perform better because Kansas City’s defense is comparable to New York’s, which frustrated him and the Eagles earlier in the season. Remember that the Eagles have gone 0-5 ATS in their previous five games and are 0-6 SU in their previous six as underdogs.
Philadelphia’s secondary has been among the worst in the NFL in 2023. Philly does have the best run defense in the league – allowing just 66.3 yards per game on the ground. That means Kansas City must capitalize on the Eagles’ weakness.
The Chiefs have had success on Monday night winning each of their last eight straight MNF games. They are 18-7 SU on Monday Night Football actually played on Monday night. There is also the whole Super Bowl rematch angle. There have only been eight occurrences of the previous season’s Super Bowl participants playing a regular season game the following year.
The most recent occurrence was the New England Patriots and Atlanta Falcons in 2017. The Patriots, of course, came back from a 28-3 deficit to beat Atlanta in Super Bowl LI. The following season, the Patriots beat the Falcons again in a regular season game. Super Bowl winners are 6-2 SU in a Super Bowl rematch the following season.
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