Welcome to Oskeim Sports’ Betting Market Report & Free Picks for Wednesday (12/31) and Thursday’s (1/1) college football bowl games! Oskeim’s award-winning sports handicappers give bettors winning free picks on the college bowl games. Be sure to check out Oskeim’s premium sports picks for sale at the online store!
Michigan (+4.5) (-110) vs. Texas
Report: Michigan arrives with revenge for a 31-12 loss to the Longhorns last season, which is significant because non-conference underdogs with revenge for a loss from the previous season are 36-16-3 ATS (69.2%) since 2019. Texas enters postseason play off a 27-17 upset win over Texas A&M, but college football teams coming off an upset win over top 15-ranked opponents are 92-120 ATS (43.4%) since 2017, including 32-45 ATS (41.6%) since the beginning of the 2023-24 season. In contrast, Michigan enters off a 27-9 loss to the Buckeyes, but ranked teams coming off a double-digit loss are 56-42-2 ATS (57.1%) since 2021.
The Big Ten Conference is a profitable 14-8 ATS (63.6%) in bowl games since 2022, whereas the Longhorns are 6-14 ATS (30%) as bowl favorites. Finally, Texas is 3-14 ATS (17.6%) as a non-conference favorite of ten points or less following a double-digit win, failing to cover the spread by an average margin of -13.5 points per game.
Texas Tech vs. Oregon (-7) (-110)
Report: Texas Tech arrives off six consecutive SU and ATS wins, and based on that success, the Red Raiders fall into a negative 46-65-3 ATS (41.4%) contrarian system of mine that dates to 2006 and invests against certain teams coming off six or more consecutive SU and ATS wins. The Red Raiders apply to another contrarian situation that is 80-126 ATS (38.8%) and fades certain teams on prolonged winning streaks in non-Saturday affairs. Since 2015, ranked college football favorites with an ATS win percentage of less than .580 are 47-21 ATS (69.1%) versus opponents ranked worse.
Finally, college football playoff underdogs coming off three consecutive wins are 5-18 SU (21.7%) and 7-15-1 ATS (31.8%) since 2019, losing by an average margin of -12.6 points per game and failing to cover the spread by an average margin of -4.5 points per game.
Miami Florida vs. Ohio State (-7.5) (-110)
Report: Miami Florida arrives off a 10-3 win over Texas A&M, which is significant because late-season college football teams coming off a game in which they scored 14 points or less are 1-13-1 ATS (7.1%), provided one additional parameter is satisfied. Miami’s victory came as three-point underdogs, but college football teams coming off an upset win over top 15-ranked opponents are 92-120 ATS (43.4%) since 2017, including 32-45 ATS (41.6%) since the beginning of the 2023-24 season.
The Hurricanes have won five consecutive games, but college football playoff underdogs entering off three straight wins are 5-18 SU (21.7%) and 7-15-1 ATS (31.8%) since 2019, losing by an average margin of -12.6 points per game and failing to cover the spread by an average margin of -4.5 points per game. Finally, Ohio State is 18-9 ATS (66.7%) in its last 27 bowl games, whereas the Hurricanes are 2-13 SU and ATS (13.3%) in bowl games since 2005.
Bonus College Football Betting Trends
- Since 1999, college bowl underdogs of +13 or less whose average game total is at least five points less than their opponent’s average total are 220-134-6 ATS (62.1%), including 103-55-4 ATS (65.2%) since 2017, covering the spread by an average margin of +3.3 points per game.
- College bowl favorites coming off a late-season loss are just 48-65-2 ATS (42.5%) when allowing more than 24.0 points per game on the season.
- Since 2012, ranked college bowl favorites of -8 or less are 26-12 ATS (68.4%) versus unranked opponents, including 8-3 ATS (72.7%) since 2021.
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