Welcome to Oskeim Sports’ Betting Market Report & Free Picks for Sunday, December 28! Oskeim’s award-winning sports handicappers give bettors winning free picks on Sunday’s games. Be sure to check out Oskeim’s premium sports picks for sale at the online store!
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns UNDER 34.5 points (-110)
Report: The weather forecast in Cleveland on Sunday calls for 13+ mph winds, which is significant in that NFL games with wind speeds of greater than 8 mph are 990-780-38 to the Under (55.9%) since 1989, including 498-349-16 UNDER (58.8%) since 2018. Since 2015, NFL teams playing back-to-back road games are 447-375-20 to the Under (55%). Since 2011, NFL division games with totals of fewer than 38 points are 68-42-2 to the Under (61.8%), including 46-26 UNDER (63.9%) since 2019, going under by an average margin of -3.0 points per game.
Finally, Pittsburgh is 30-8 to the Under (78.9%) since 2013, on the road versus opponents averaging fewer than 25 rush attempts per game, and 24-6-1 to the Under (80%) since 2015, as road favorites of three points or less versus opponents with at least one win.
New England Patriots at New York Jets UNDER 42.5 points (-110)
Report: Since 2008, NFL teams that have allowed 100 or more total points in their last three games are 209-139-7 to the Under (60.1%), including 77-48 UNDER (61.6%) since 2020, going under by an average margin of -2.7 points per game. Since 2013, NFL teams averaging six or more yards per play are 481-399-23 to the Under (55%) from Week 5 forward. Since 2015, NFL teams playing back-to-back road games are 447-375-20 to the Under (55%). Since 2008, NFL games involving double-digit road favorites are 59-46-1 to the Under (56.2%) since 2008. The Jets return home from a 29-6 loss at New Orleans, which is significant because NFL teams entering off a loss by 20 or more points are 392-317-14 to the Under (55.3%) since 2010.
Finally, the Patriots arrive off a 28-24 win at Baltimore, and NFL road favorites coming off a win as road underdogs are 97-66-4 to the Under (59.5%) since 1989, including 33-19-1 UNDER (63.5%) since 2016.
Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers (+6.5) (-110)
Report: Since 1989, NFL underdogs of less than eight points are 163-85-6 ATS (65.7%) in late-season affairs with totals of 40.5 to 49 points versus opponents with a better record, provided one additional parameter is satisfied. Seattle arrives off a 38-37 overtime win over the Rams, which is significant because NFL teams coming off a home win by fewer than ten points are 329-447-17 ATS (57.6%) if they scored 27 or more points in that victory. Finally, NFL teams arriving off a home win in overtime are 74-118-6 ATS (38.5%) since 1989, including 14-41 ATS (25.5%) since 2018, failing to cover the spread by an average margin of -4.6 points per game. This situation is 1-9 ATS in its last ten circumstances.
Los Angeles Rams at Atlanta Falcons UNDER 49.5 points (-110)
Report: Los Angeles arrives off a 38-37 overtime loss to the Seahawks, which is significant because NFL teams coming off an overtime game are 148-107-5 to the Under (58%) since 2017 and 99-63 UNDER (61.1%) since 2021. Since 2006, Monday Night Football favorites coming off a loss are 67-41-3 to the Under (62%), including 37-14 UNDER (72.5%) since 2018, going under by an average margin of -5.2 points per game. Since 2013, NFL teams averaging six or more yards per play are 483-401-23 to the Under (55%) from Week 5 forward.
Finally, the Falcons are 18-3 to the Under (85.7%) since December 1, 2017, in primetime affairs and 14-2 to the Under (87.5%) since November 10, 2013, as home underdogs versus opponents averaging more than 25.0 points per game.
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