Welcome to Oskeim Sports’ Betting Market Report & Free Picks for Sunday, November 30! Oskeim’s award-winning sports handicappers give bettors winning free picks on Sunday’s games. Be sure to check out Oskeim’s premium sports picks for sale at the online store!
Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans UNDER 42.5 points (-110)
Report: The weather forecast in Cleveland on Sunday calls for 13+ mph winds, which is significant in that NFL games with wind speeds of greater than 8 mph are 960-768-38 to the Under (55.6%) since 1989, including 468-337-16 UNDER (58.1%) since 2018. The Browns are averaging 37.1 pass attempts per game this season (2nd-most in the NFL), which triggers a very strong 80-36-1 (69%) NFL totals system of mine that invests on the Under in certain games involving home teams averaging more than 36.5 pass attempts per game, provided the opponent arrives off a road affair. This situation has been an even better 45-11 to the Under (80.4%) since 2015. The Ravens are 26-11-3 to the Under (70.3%) coming off a road game in which they gained 22 or more first downs, going under by an average margin of -4.5 points per game.
Finally, Cleveland is 15-2-1 to the Under (88.2%) as a home underdog of at least a touchdown, going under by an average margin of -5.5 points per game since December 10, 2009.
Arizona Cardinals (+3.5) (-110) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Report: Arizona arrives off three consecutive losses, which is significant in that .500 or worse NFL underdogs coming off three straight losses are 251-167-7 ATS (60%) in games with totals of 38.5 to 54 points. The Cardinals’ most recent loss came in overtime to Jacksonville, and NFL teams coming off a road overtime game decided by three points or less are 112-92-5 ATS (55%) since 2005, including 46-28-2 ATS (62.2%) since 2018. Since 2013, NFL teams coming off three or more consecutive losses are 42-48-4 ATS (42%) when favored by three points or more.
Arizona is 34-23 ATS (59.6%) in road/neutral games since 2019 and 34-22 ATS (60.7%) as an underdog since 2021, whereas the Buccaneers are 39-54 ATS (41.9%) at home and 39-52 ATS (42.9%) as favorites since 2014. Finally, Tampa Bay quarterback Baker Mayfield is just 7-18 ATS as a home favorite since 2020.
Denver Broncos at Washington Commanders UNDER 43 points (-110)
Report: The weather forecast in Landover, Maryland on Sunday calls for 11+ mph winds, which is significant in that NFL games with wind speeds of greater than 8 mph are 972-774-38 to the Under (55.7%) since 1989, including 480-343-16 UNDER (58.3%) since 2018. Sunday Night Football games between non-conference teams are 32-14 to the Under (69.6%), while NFL road teams coming off a bye week are 45-25-1 to the Under (64.3%) since 2021. The latter situation aligns with the Broncos being 12-4-1 to the Under (75%) in their last 17 post-bye-week games. Let’s also note that Denver is 19-6 to the Under (76%) in primetime affairs since 2017. Since 2015, NFL games between teams with 7 or more days of rest are 141-96-7 to the Under (59.5%).
Finally, Washington returns home from a 16-13 overtime loss to the Dolphins, and NFL teams coming off an overtime affair are 140-102-5 to the Under (57.9%), including 91-58 UNDER (61.1%) since 2021.
Bonus NFL Betting Trends for Sunday, November 30
- Buffalo head coach Sean McDermott is 28-16 to the Under following a loss, while starting quarterback Josh Allen is 38-22 to the Under since 2018.
- Pittsburgh is 107-75 to the Under (58.8%) since 2015, while starting quarterback Aaron Rodgers is 15-7 to the Under versus opponents with a better record.
- Since 2010, NFL teams coming off a loss by 20 or more points are 388-309-14 to the Under (55.7%).
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