Welcome to Oskeim Sports’ Betting Market Report & Free Picks for Sunday, January 11! Oskeim’s award-winning sports handicappers give bettors winning free picks on Sunday’s games. Be sure to check out Oskeim’s premium sports picks for sale at the online store!
Los Angeles Rams at Carolina Panthers (+10.5) (-110)
Report: Since 1991, NFL favorites of -9.5 to -14.5 are 93-134-6 ATS (41%). Los Angeles arrives in Carolina off a 37-20 win over the Cardinals, which is significant because NFL road favorites of three points or greater coming off a double-digit win are 98-147-3 ATS (40%), provided one additional parameter is satisfied. Meanwhile, Carolina enters postseason play off consecutive losses, 16-14 and 27-10, respectively, but NFL playoff teams averaging fewer than seventeen points in their last two games are 16-4 ATS (80%) since 2016, covering the spread by an average margin of +8.8 points per game.
Since 2017, NFL playoff underdogs who missed the postseason the previous season are 41-21 ATS (66.1%). Finally, the Panthers are a perfect 8-0 ATS following a loss this season, covering the spread by an average of 10.4 points per game.
Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars (+1.5) (-110)
Report: Since 2017, NFL playoff underdogs are 57-39-2 ATS (59.4%), while home underdogs are 13-4 ATS (76.5%) in postseason play since 2014, covering the spread by an average margin of +7.9 points per game. Let’s also note that Wild-Card Round underdogs are 26-16-1 ATS (61.9%) since 2017, while NFL playoff underdogs who missed the postseason the previous season are 41-21 ATS (66.1%). Jacksonville quarterback Trevor Lawrence has been averaging 0.19 EPA/Play since Week 4, and the addition of wide receiver Jakobi Meyers at the trade deadline has given the Jaguars a legitimate threat in the middle of the field. Indeed, the Jaguars are averaging 5.2 expected completed air yards per attempt, fourth best in the NFL.
Jacksonville has scored 23+ points in ten straight games, while its defense has allowed 20 points or fewer in six straight contests. Finally, the Bills have lost eight consecutive playoff road games, with their last win coming back in 1993.
Los Angeles Chargers (+3.5) (-110) at New England Patriots
Report: New England enters the postseason off 42-10 and 38-10 wins, which is significant because NFL teams coming off back-to-back games in which they scored 31 or more points and allowed fewer than 14 points are just 19-49 ATS (27.9%), falling short of market expectations by an average margin of -3.8 points per game. In addition, NFL teams coming off back-to-back games in which they scored 31 or more points and allowed fewer than 13 points are 12-37 ATS (24.5%) since 1989, failing to cover the spread by an average margin of -4.8 points per game. In contrast, the Chargers arrive in New England off a 19-3 loss to the Broncos, and NFL underdogs of fewer than thirteen points are 134-76-6 ATS (63.8%) following a loss as road underdogs, provided the margin of defeat was less than 24 points.
Let’s also note that Wild-Card Round underdogs are 26-16-1 ATS (61.9%), while .750 or greater NFL playoff favorites are 72-93-2 ATS (43.6%) since 2000, including 15-22 ATS (40.5%) since 2020. Finally, Los Angeles head coach Jim Harbaugh is 61-41-5 ATS (59.8%) in his NFL career, including 5-1 ATS as an underdog of greater than three points following consecutive losses.
Los Angeles Chargers at New England Patriots UNDER 46 points (-110)
Report: Since 1989, NFL Wild Card Round games with totals of 44 or more points are 80-44 to the Under (64.5%). Since 2003, NFL Wild Card underdogs in the Wild Card Round are 61-39 to the Under (61%). This marks the first time these teams have met this season, which is significant because NFL playoff games between teams meeting for the first time are 27-6-1 to the Under (81.8%) with totals of 39 or more points since 1989, going under by an average margin of -5.2 points per game. The Chargers arrive off a 19-3 loss to the Broncos in its regular-season finale, and .501 or greater teams coming off a loss in which they scored fewer than fourteen points are 134-105-7 to the Under (56.1%) since 2012.
Finally, since 2014, NFL teams coming off back-to-back losses in which they allowed and scored 20 points or fewer are 32-24-1 to the Under (57.1%) since 2014, including 19-11 UNDER (63.3%) since 2020.
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