Welcome to Oskeim Sports’ Betting Market Report & Free Picks for Saturday, November 29! Oskeim’s award-winning sports handicappers give bettors winning free picks on Saturday’s games. Be sure to check out Oskeim’s premium sports picks for sale at the online store!
Middle Tennessee State (+4) (-110) at New Mexico State
Report: College football conference favorites in regular season finales are just 9-22-1 ATS (28.1%) if they rush for fewer than 100 yards per game on the season, including 4-14-1 ATS (21%) as favorites of fewer than seven points. The fact that Middle Tennessee State arrives off a 42-26 loss to Western Kentucky is significant because the system plummets to 1-10 SU and ATS when these bloated favorites face opponents coming off a loss by more than 7 points. Since 2007, college football road underdogs of fewer than seven points with no more than three wins are 841-687-28 ATS (55%).
Finally, college football home favorites of less than four points coming off an upset win as underdogs are 97-135-3 ATS (41.8%) since 1997, failing to cover the spread by an average margin of -2.4 points per game.
UTEP (+4) (-110) at Delaware State
Report: Since 2007, college football road underdogs of fewer than seven points with no more than three wins are 841-687-28 ATS (55%). UTEP arrives off a 34-31 loss to New Mexico State in which they rushed for 248 yards at 7.3 yards per rush attempt. Since 1996, college football road underdogs coming off an upset loss as favorites who rush for more than 200 yards are 100-63-2 ATS (62.3%), including 53-23-2 ATS (69.7%) since 2016, exceeding market expectations by an average of +7.2 points per game. Finally, Delaware State falls into a very negative 250-315-11 ATS (44.2%) system that dates to 2006 and invests against certain conference home favorites with a negative against-the-spread margin over their last three games. This situation is 102-143-6 ATS (41.6%) since 2018, failing to cover the spread by an average margin of -2.3 points per game.
Texas Tech (-28) (-110) at West Virginia
Report: Texas Tech arrives in West Virginia off four straight wins, including 48-9 and 29-7 victories over Central Florida and BYU, respectively, in its last two contests. Since 2004, conference favorites priced between -21 and -31 points are 197-116-7 ATS (62.9%) following consecutive double-digit wins, covering the spread by an average margin of +2.7 points per game. Since 2009, college football home underdogs of seven or more points are 137-186-2 ATS (42.4%) from Week 13 forward, failing to cover the spread by an average margin of -2.9 points per game. Finally, ranked road favorites of greater than six points are 100-79-2 ATS (55.9%) from Week 12 out, including 81-59-2 ATS (57.9%) versus unranked opponents, covering the spread by an average margin of +3.0 points per game.
Florida State (+1.5) (110) at Florida
Report: Since 1990, small-to-medium rested road underdogs coming off an against-the-spread (ATS) loss are 361-269-17 ATS (57.3%), provided both teams are unranked, including 121-81-6 ATS (60%) since 2018, covering the spread by an average margin of +2.0 points per game. Florida State arrives off a 21-11 loss to North Carolina State in which it outgained the Wolfpack but committed four turnovers. Since 1989, college football teams with seven or more days of rest are 225-162-3 ATS (58.1%) following a game in which they committed three or more turnovers. Florida State is 10-1 straight-up in this rivalry when owning the better record, including 5-0 ATS in Gainesville.
Finally, college football road underdogs fighting for bowl eligibility are 46-29-5 ATS (61.3%) in season finales, including 16-7-2 ATS (69.6%) since 2020, covering the spread by an average margin of +5.0 points per game.
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