Welcome to Oskeim Sports’ Betting Market Report & Free Picks for Saturday, November 15! Oskeim’s award-winning sports handicappers give bettors winning free picks on Saturday’s games. Be sure to check out Oskeim’s premium sports picks for sale at the online store!
Arkansas (+5.5) (-110) at LSU
Report: Since 1989, conference road underdogs of less than +24 coming off an ATS loss with totals of 42.5 to 69 points are 230-129-6 ATS (64.1%) versus opponents with less rest, covering the spread by an average margin of +3.2 points per game. Since 1989, conference road underdogs of less than +24 coming off an ATS loss in which they scored 55 points or less are 197-105-5 ATS (65.2%) versus opponents with less rest and the same or better record, covering the spread by an average of +3.4 points per game. Arkansas arrives with triple revenge, including a 34-10 loss last October, which is significant in that college football road underdogs of less than thirteen points are 360-255-12 ATS (58.5%) with revenge from Week 3 forward.
Finally, LSU is coming off a 20-9 loss to the Crimson Tide, and college football home favorites entering off a game in which they scored fewer than ten points are 296-394-22 ATS (42.9%) since 2004.
Wyoming (+3.5) (-110) at Fresno State
Report: Since 1990, unranked conference road underdogs in games with below average totals are 628-472-29 ATS (57.1%), including 207-136-10 ATS (60.3%) as underdogs of less than +25 versus opponents entering off an against-the-spread (ATS) win from Week 7 forward. The latter situation has gone 100-57-5 ATS (63.7%) since 2018. The Cowboys arrive off a 24-7 loss to San Diego State in which they finished with four turnovers, and, since 1989, college football teams with seven or more days of rest are 222-151-3 ATS (59.5%) following a game in which they committed three or more turnovers
Finally, Wyoming is averaging nearly 150 rushing yards per game at 4.4 yards per attempt this season (61st in FBS), which is significant in that college football underdogs averaging 125 or more rushing yards per game are 476-357-23 ATS (57.1%) in contests with totals of 47 points or less.
Penn State at Michigan State (+5.5) (-110)
Report: Michigan State takes the field with legitimate revenge for a humiliating 42-0 loss to the Nittany Lions, which is significant in that college football home underdogs of three or more points are 261-206-8 ATS (55.9%) with revenge for a blowout loss since 1992, including 55-35-1 ATS (61.1%) since 2018. These same teams are 13-3 ATS in their last sixteen attempts under these circumstances, including 8-1 ATS in their last nine. Let’s also note that Big Ten Conference underdogs of +10 or less with revenge for a home loss are 96-69-5 ATS (58.2%) since 2005, including 36-23-1 ATS (61%) since 2019, covering the spread by an average margin of +4.1 points per game. That situation fits nicely with the fact that the Spartans are 26-11 SU and 24-13 ATS in their last 37 home games, including 18-6 ATS as either favorites or underdogs of +10 or less.
Penn State arrives off a disheartening 27-24 loss to the Hoosiers, and conference teams coming off a one-possession loss as underdogs of seven or more points are 768-938-39 ATS (45%). Finally, Penn State is just 5-10 ATS as a conference road favorite following a loss, including 0-4 ATS off back-to-back defeats.
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