Oskeim Sports gives a detailed betting preview and free picks on Friday’s NCAA Tournament games. Be sure to check out Oskeim’s premium sports picks for sale at the online store! Oskeim’s award-winning handicappers also offer daily free picks!
Robert Morris vs. Alabama UNDER 167 points (-110)
Report: Since 2008, NCAA Tournament games between teams that have gone over the total in 51% or more of their games during the season are 91-62-2 to the Under (59.5%), including 51-30 UNDER (63%) since 2019, going under by an average margin of -3.9 points per game. Since 2007, college basketball favorites of 15 to 25 points whose average totals during the season is lower than the current game’s total are 523-408-10 to the Under (56.2%), including 13-8-1 to the Under (61.9%) in the NCAA Tournament. : Since 2017, Round 1 NCAA Tournament games are 120-89 to the Under (57.4%), including 50-30 UNDER (62.5%) since 2022, going under by an average margin of -2.7 points per game. Since 2004, NCAA Tournament games with totals of 135 or more points are 145-114-2 to the Under (56%) in Rounds 0 and 1, including 101-66 UNDER (60.5%) since 2017, going under by an average of -2.3 points per game. Since 2004, college basketball favorites of fifteen or more points in games with totals of 150 or more points are 197-153-2 to the Under (56.3%) if the previous meeting went under the total.
Since 2004, college basketball teams coming off a game in which they allowed 90 or more points are 297-241-4 to the Under (55.2%) in neutral court affairs. This situation is 20-13-1 to the Under (60.6%) in the NCAA Tournament, including 11-6 UNDER (64.7%) since 2019. Finally, since 2015, NCAA Tournament teams that average three-plus free throw attempts more per game than their opponent are 121-101-3 to the Under (55%).
Connecticut vs. Oklahoma UNDER 148.5 points (-110)
Report: Since 2017, Round 1 NCAA Tournament games are 220-162 to the Under (57.6%), including 82-46 UNDER (64.1%) since 2022, going under by an average margin of -2.8 points per game. Since 2004, NCAA Tournament games with totals of 135 or more points are 138-106-2 to the Under (56.6%) in Rounds 0 and 1, including 94-58 UNDER (61.8%) since 2017, going under by an average of -2.5 points per game. Since 2005, NCAA Tournament games between teams that have a combined average over/under margin of six or more points are 40-19-1 to the Under (77.8%) with totals of less than 152 points, going under by an average of -4.4 points per game. Since 2005, Round 1 NCAA Tournament games involving teams that have a combined average over/under margin of six or more points are 26-8 to the Under (76.5%) with totals of less than 151 points, going under by an average of -6.4 points per game.
Since 2017, NCAA Tournament teams shooting 75% or better from the foul line are 102-80 to the Under (56%), including 59-41 UNDER (59%) since 2021, going under by an average of -3.8 points per game. Finally, since 2015, NCAA Tournament teams that average three-plus free throw attempts more per game than their opponent are 121-101-3 to the Under (55%).
Lipscomb (+14.5) (-110) vs. Iowa State
Report: Lipscomb head coach Lennie Acuff has made three trips to the Sweet 16 and two trips to the Elite Eight at the Division II level and will have the Bisons prepared to battle Iowa State on Thursday. Lipscomb is 11-1 SU in its last twelve games overall, converting 57% of its shots from inside the arc since February 1. Since 2003, NCAA Tournament teams shooting 75% or better from the foul line are 152-113-3 ATS (57.4%), including 90-62 ATS (59.2%) since 2018. Since 2004, NCAA Tournament teams shooting 77% or better from the foul line are 65-44 ATS (59.6%), including 45-25 ATS (64.3%) since 2018, covering the spread by an average margin of +2.5 points per game. Since 2019, college basketball teams that had 31 or more rebounds and committed fewer than fifteen turnovers in the previous meeting are 144-107-1 ATS (57.4%) in the rematch. Since 2004, NCAA Tournament teams that averaged three or more free throw attempts per game than their opponent are 122-167-7 ATS (42.2%).
Finally, since 2016, NCAA Tournament teams coming off a game in which they shot 50.0% or better from the field are 84-104-5 ATS (44.7%) versus opponents entering off a game with a 49.9% or worse field goal percentage, including 35-50-1 ATS (41.2%) since 2021, falling short of market expectations by an average of -2.2 points per game.
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