Welcome to Oskeim Sports’ Free MLB Betting Preview for Saturday’s game between the Pittsburgh Pirates and Chicago Cubs. Oskeim’s award-winning sports handicappers give bettors winning free picks on Thursday’s games. Be sure to check out Oskeim’s premium sports picks for sale at the online store!
Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubs (-1.5)
Report: The fact that the Cubs are large favorites is good news for the home squad as MLB favorites of -201 or greater in games with totals of eight or more runs are 2663-1012 SU (72.5%; +2.2% ROI) and 1975-1493 RL (56.9%; +2.7% ROI) since 2007, including 1531-538 SU (74.0%; +3.6% ROI) and 1209-861 RL (58.4%; +2.7% ROI) since 2018, winning by an average margin of +2.3 runs per game. Similarly, large MLB favorites in games with totals of greater than eight runs are 2308-911 SU (71.7%; +2.6% ROI) and 1814-1397 RL (56.5%; +2.8% ROI), winning by an average margin of +2.1 runs per game. Since 2003, large MLB home favorites that have the same or better record than their opponent over the last ten games are 2553-1027 SU (71.3%; +1.1% ROI) and 1663-1399 RL (+1.3% ROI) from Game 40 out, including 982-367 SU (72.8%; +2.0% ROI) and 745-603 RL (55.3%; +1% ROI) since 2019, winning by an average of +2.0 runs per game.
Since 2006, MLB road underdogs of +130 or greater are 2941-5205 SU (36.1%; -4.0% ROI) and 4174-3553 RL (-2.7% ROI) versus .551 or greater opponents, including 929-1792 SU (34.1%; -7.3% ROI) and 1376-1341 RL (-6.0% ROI) since 2019, losing by an average of -1.4 runs per game. Finally, since 2002, MLB road underdogs of +175 or greater are 906-2199 SU (29.2%; -10.2% ROI) and 1264-1458 RL (-6.2% ROI) versus .551 or greater opponents, including 329-890 SU (27.0%; -15.5% ROI) and 535-684 RL (-9.7% ROI) since 2019, losing by an average of -2.0 runs per game.
Bonus MLB Betting Trends for Saturday, August 16
- Since 2009, divisional home favorites of greater than -150 coming off a loss are 1301-654 SU (66.5%; +1.7% ROI) and 959-994 RL (+3.3% ROI), including 405-175 SU (69.8%; +5.1% ROI) and 310-270 RL (+8.6% ROI) since 2020, winning by an average margin of +1.8 runs per game.
- Since 2005, large MLB home favorites with revenge in Game 1 of a series are 886-465 SU (65.6%; +2.3% ROI) and 586-627 RL (+4.9% ROI), winning by an average margin of +1.4 runs per game.
- Since 2004, large MLB favorites entering off a loss in which they led after the sixth inning are 269-110 SU (71%; +2.8% ROI) and 184-144 RL (56.1%; +6.1% ROI), including 128-33 SU (79.5%; +14.1% ROI) and 100-60 RL (62.5%; +14.6% ROI) since 2018, winning by an average of +2.4 runs per game.
- Los Angeles southpaw Clayton Kershaw is 29-7 SU (80.6%; +19.9% ROI) and 22-14 RL (61.1%; +12.8% ROI) since 2017, coming off a win in his previous outing versus opponents that defeated him in their previous matchup, winning by an average of +3.1 runs per game.
- Since 2004, .490 or worse road underdogs of +142 or greater coming off two or more consecutive losses are 1295-2613 SU (33.1%; -8.1% ROI) and 1728-1574 RL (-2.7% ROI), including 406-845 SU (32.5%; -7.1% ROI) and 632-619 RL (-2.7% ROI) since 2019, losing by an average margin of -1.5 runs per game.
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