Welcome to Oskeim Sports’ Free MLB Betting Preview for Thursday’s game between the Philadelphia Phillies and Washington Nationals. Oskeim’s award-winning sports handicappers give bettors winning free picks on Thursday’s games. Be sure to check out Oskeim’s premium sports picks for sale at the online store!
Philadelphia Phillies (-190) at Washington Nationals
Probable Starters: Phillies: Jesus Luzardo (11-5, 4.20 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 151 strikeouts); Nationals: Brad Lord (3-6, 3.28 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 70 strikeouts)
Report: The fact that the Phillies are large favorites is good news for the road squad as large MLB favorites in games with totals of eight or more runs are 2663-1012 SU (72.5%; +2.2% ROI) and 1975-1493 RL (56.9%; +2.7% ROI) since 2007, including 1531-538 SU (74.0%; +3.6% ROI) and 1209-861 RL (58.4%; +2.7% ROI) since 2018, winning by an average margin of +2.3 runs per game. Similarly, large MLB favorites in games with totals of greater than eight runs are 2308-908 SU (71.8%; +2.7% ROI) and 1814-1394 RL (56.5%; +2.9% ROI), winning by an average margin of +2.1 runs per game. Since 2005, MLB favorites of -191 or greater in the first game of a series are 1497-637 SU (70.1%; +1.0% ROI) and 1080-877 RL (55.2%; +2.8% ROI), including 795-322 SU (71.2%; +1.6% ROI) and 634-481 RL (56.9%; +3.3% ROI) since 2018, winning by an average of +2.0 runs per game. Philadelphia is 56-23 SU (70.9%; +11.3% ROI) and 43-35 RL (55.1%; +10.5% ROI) versus the Nationals since 2020, winning by an average margin of +2.2 runs per game.
The Nationals are 32-69 SU (31.7%; -27.1% ROI) and 45-56 RL (-15% ROI) since 2020, in the opening game of a divisional series, losing by an average of -1.2 runs per game. Finally, since 2006, large road favorites are 779-332 SU (70.1%; +1.6% ROI) and 627-437 RL (58.9%; +2.0% ROI), winning by an average margin of +2.3 runs per game. This situation improves to 536-200 SU (72.8%; +3.6% ROI) and 440-262 RL (62.7%; +6.5% ROI) with .501 or greater road favorites, winning by an average of +2.6 runs per game.
Bonus MLB Betting Trends for Thursday, August 14
- Since 2003, divisional home favorites of greater than -130 coming off back-to-back wins are 758-428 SU (63.9%; +1% ROI) and 473-520 RL (+3.3% ROI) in Games 45 to 120, including 259-126 SU (67.3%; +4.5% ROI) and 196-189 RL (+6.2% ROI) since 2019, winning by an average margin of +1.6 runs per game.
- Since 2007, divisional home underdogs of +150 or greater are 392-814 SU (32.5%; -11.2% ROI) and 540-661 RL (45%; -8.3% ROI), losing by an average margin of -2.0 runs per game.
- The Detroit Tigers are 28-11 SU (71.8%; +23.9% ROI) and 24-15 RL (61.5%; +19.6% ROI) in series openers, winning by an average margin of +1.5 runs per game.
- The Detroit Tigers are 19-2 SU (90.5%; +34.5% ROI) and 14-7 RL (66.7%; +33.4% ROI) since September 7, 2024, as favorites of greater than -135 in the first game of a series, winning by an average of +3.1 runs per game.
- Since 2003, large MLB home favorites that have the same or better record than their opponent over the last ten games are 2552-1025 SU (71.3%; +1.2% ROI) and 1662-1397 RL (+1.3% ROI) from Game 40 out, including 981-365 SU (72.9%; +2.1% ROI) and 744-601 RL (55.3%; +1% ROI) since 2019, winning by an average of +2.0 runs per game.
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