Welcome to Oskeim Sports’ Betting Market Report & Free Picks for Thursday, March 27! Oskeim’s award-winning sports handicappers give bettors winning free picks on Thursday’s games. Be sure to check out Oskeim’s premium sports picks for sale at the online store!
Indiana Pacers (-13) (-110) at Washington Wizards
Report: Since 2009, NBA road favorites of five or more points are 1683-1389-61 ATS (55%). Since 1989, NBA road favorites of five or more points coming off three or more consecutive games in which they scored 105 or more points are 692-514-28 ATS (57.4%). Since 1989, .599 or worse road favorites of greater than three points are 677-507-28 ATS (57.2%) after the All-Star break, including 186-112-5 ATS (62.4%) since 2020. Since 2005, NBA road favorites coming off a loss are 1613-1335-55 ATS (55%). Since 1989, NBA road favorites of -9 or more coming off a loss are 184-126-7 ATS (59.4%), including 94-59-3 ATS (61.4%) since 2016, covering the spread by an average margin of +2.5 points per game. Since 1989, NBA road favorites coming off a loss are 855-675-27 (55.9%) versus opponents entering off a win, including 382-283-10 ATS (57.4%) since 2015. This situation is 479-372-13 ATS (56.3%) if the opponent is coming off an upset home win as underdogs.
Finally, Indiana falls into a profitable 306-184-11 ATS (62.4%) Road Favorite Scoring Margin System of mine that dates to 1989 and is 194-112-4 ATS (63.4%) since 2016, covering the spread by an average of +3.3 points per game.
Houston Rockets at Utah Jazz OVER 228 points (-110)
Report: Since 1989, .451 or greater non-divisional favorites of greater than nine points in games with totals of 220 to 231.5 points are 242-136-12 to the Over (64%) versus opponents coming off a loss from Game 31 out, going over by an average margin of +5.1 points per game. Since 2015, non-division conference games with double-digit spreads are 521-422-31 to the Over (55.2%), including 269-206-9 OVER (56.6%) since 2020. Since 1989, .499 or worse teams are 620-519-38 to the Over (55%) versus .550 or greater opponents in games with totals of 220 to 230 points. Since 2014, .501 or better road favorites of greater than two points that score fewer points per game than the league average are 304-237-21 to the Over (56.2%) from Game 20 forward, including 168-120-3 OVER (58.3%) since 2021.
Finally, the Over applies to a very good 117-84-4 (58.2%) Low Scoring System of mine that dates to 2013 and is 61-39-1 OVER (61%) since 2021, going over by an average of +4.3 points per game.
Dallas Stars (-130) at Calgary Flames
Report: Since 2003, conference road favorites of less than -250 are 2980-1974 (60.2%; +3.5% ROI). Since 2007, .401 or greater road favorites are 2487-1671 (59.8%; +3.9% ROI) versus .401 or greater opponents. Since 2003, NHL road favorites with fewer than three days of rest are 2201-1429 (60.6%; +2.5% ROI) with a road game on deck, including 650-417 (60.9%; +1% ROI) since 2021, winning by an average margin of +0.7 goals per game. Since 2005, NHL road favorites of -140 or greater are 774-398 (66%; +3.6% ROI) versus opponents coming off a win, including 299-160 (65.1%; +1% ROI) since 2021, winning by an average margin of +0.8 goals per game. Since 2004, unrested road favorites are 744-506 (59.5%; +1.0% ROI), including 252-171 (59.6%) since 2020. Since 2003, .599 or worse NHL underdogs entering off three or more consecutive wins are 562-975 (36.6%; -14.2% ROI), including 98-194 (33.6%; -19.2% ROI) since 2020, losing by an average of -1.0 goals per game.
Finally, since 2003, NHL underdogs coming off three or more consecutive wins are 848-1385 (38%; -12.3% ROI), including 142-271 (34.4%; -19.4% ROI) since 2021, losing by an average of -0.9 goals per game.
Ottawa Senators (-132) at Detroit Red Wings
Report: Since 2003, conference road favorites of less than -250 are 2980-1974 (60.2%; +3.5% ROI). Since 2007, .401 or greater road favorites are 2487-1671 (59.8%; +3.9% ROI) versus .401 or greater opponents. Since 2003, .500 or greater conference road favorites are 376-181 (67.5%; +10.1% ROI) versus .499 or worse opponents playing their third game in four days, including 205-79 (72.2%; +13.2% ROI) since 2016, winning by an average of +1.0 goals per game. Since 2003, NHL road favorites of -160 or less are 383-206 (65%; +15% ROI) versus opponents with one or fewer days of rest in non-October affairs, including 194-95 (67.1%; +18.7% ROI) since 2016. Since 2004, NHL underdogs that have lost five or more consecutive games to the opponent are 119-289 (29.2%; -22.8% ROI), losing by an average of -1.1 goals per game.
Finally, since 2007, .499 or worse underdogs coming off back-to-back road games are 1353-2204 (38%; -5.8% ROI) and -3.6% ROI PL, including 364-724 (33.5%; -12.3% ROI) and -6.7% PL since 2020.
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