Welcome to Oskeim Sports’ Betting Market Report & Free Picks for Tuesday, March 4! Oskeim’s award-winning sports handicappers give bettors winning free picks on Tuesday’s games. Be sure to check out Oskeim’s premium sports picks for sale at the online store!
Toronto Raptors at Orlando Magic UNDER 209.5 points (-110)
Report: Since 2001, NBA games between teams that have the lowest total of their last three games in contests with totals of less than 225 points are 1241-913-74 (57.6%), including 560-388-30 (59.1%) since 2015, covering the total by an average margin of -2.6 points per game. Since 2004, NBA contests between teams whose season game totals combine to average 437 or more points are 707-544-41 to the Under (56.5%) with totals of less than 218 points. Since 1995, NBA contests between teams that have combined to average 430 or more points in their last three games are 640-456-26 to the Under (58.4%) with totals of less than 216 points. Since 1995, NBA contests between teams that have combined to average 430 or more points in their last three games are 308-186-12 to the Under (62.3%) with totals of less than 213 points.
Finally, the under falls into a very good 283-211-18 (57.3%) NBA totals system that dates to 2008 and invests on the under in games with road teams coming off an under. This situation is 175-115-10 to the Under (60.3%) since 2015.
Green Bay (+10) (-110) vs. Oakland
Report: Since 2008, .200 or worse college basketball road underdogs of +10.5 to +31.5 points with revenge for a home loss are 247-173-6 ATS (58.8%). Since the beginning of the 2022-23 season, college basketball underdogs of seven or more points coming off a home game are 94-79-3 ATS versus opponents entering off an overtime affair, covering the spread by an average margin of +1.5 points per game.
Finally, since 2003, double-digit home favorites are 342-446-12 ATS (43.4%) versus opponents with a subpar plus/minus margin after the regular season’s midway point, including 169-229-2 ATS (42.5%) since 2021.
San Jose Sharks at Buffalo Sabres (-205)
Report: Since 2003, NHL home favorites of greater than -165 are 796-335 (70.3%; +3.1% ROI) versus road teams coming off a road affair playing their third game in four days, including 322-121 (72.7%; +4.8% ROI) since 2018, winning by an average margin of +1.3 goals per game. Since 2004, .499 or worse underdogs with no rest coming off a road game are 607-1139 (34.8%; -11.1% ROI) and -7.6% ROI PL, including 110-295 (27.2%; -25.2% ROI) and -12.6% ROI PL since 2020. Since 2003, unrested NHL underdogs coming off a road game in which they had fewer shots on goal are 55-117 (32%; -16.8% ROI).
Since 2002, NHL road underdogs of +150 or greater coming off an upset road win as underdogs +250 or greater are 20-61 (24.7%; -21.2% ROI), losing by an average margin of -1.4 goals per game. Finally, since 2007, .499 or worse underdogs coming off back-to-back road games are 1336-2178 (38%; -5.9% ROI) and -3.7% ROI PL, including 347-698 (33.2%; -12.7% ROI) and -6.9% PL since 2020.
Carolina Hurricanes (-192) at Detroit Red Wings
Report: Since 2003, conference road favorites of less than -250 are 2956-1959 (60.1%; +3.5% ROI). Since 2007, .401 or greater road favorites are 2453-1653 (59.7%; +3.8% ROI) versus .401 or greater opponents. Since 2003, NHL favorites coming off a win as home favorites in which they allowed fewer than three goals are 1457-842 (63.4%; +2.5% ROI), including 335-184 (64.5%; +1% ROI) since 2020. Since 2005, NHL road favorites of -175 or less coming off a win are 540-348 (60.8%; +6.7% ROI) if they are averaging more shots on goal than their opponents. Since 2010, NHL road favorites of -210 or less coming off back-to-back unders are 386-235 (62.2%; +7.6% ROI) if they won their last game. Since 2003, Eastern Conference road teams priced between -100 and -199 coming off a win that went under the total are 387-257 (60.1%; +6.1% ROI), including 134-77 (63.5%; +9.2% ROI) since 2018.
Finally, since 2003, NHL home underdogs coming off a game in which they had 30 or more shots on goal are 1125-1582 (41.6%; -5.2% ROI), including 335-542 (38.2%; -8.2% ROI) since 2020, losing by an average of -0.7 goals per game.
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