Welcome to Oskeim Sports’ Betting Market Report & Free Picks for Monday, February 3! Oskeim’s award-winning sports handicappers give bettors winning free picks on Monday’s games. Be sure to check out Oskeim’s premium sports picks for sale at the online store!
Sacramento Kings at Minnesota Timberwolves (-4.5) (-110)
Report: Since 1989, NBA teams coming off an upset loss as favorites of -12 or more are 151-84-8 ATS (64.3%). Since 1989, NBA teams coming off a loss as favorites of -12 or more are 110-51-5 ATS (68.3%) versus .400 or greater opponents, covering the spread by an average margin of +3.6 points per game. Since 1990, NBA teams coming off a game in which their opponent scored 66 or more points in the paint and attempted 39 or more three-pointers are 6-24 SU and 6-24 ATS (20%) from Game 48 out, including 4-17 SU and ATS (19%) since 2020, falling short of market expectations by an average of -8.2 points per game.
Finally, since 2018, NBA non-division underdogs coming off a loss as road underdogs are 135-168-5 ATS (44.6%) versus opponents entering off a SU and ATS loss that went under the total.
Indiana Pacers (-7) (-110) at Utah Jazz
Report: Since 2009, NBA road favorites of five or more points are 1640-1348-61 ATS (55%). Since 1989, NBA road favorites of five or more points coming off three or more consecutive games in which they scored 105 or more points are 663-493-28 ATS (57.4%). Since 1989, non-conference road teams priced between -3 and +10 with ATS revenge are 711-574-27 ATS (55.3%), including 161-116-5 ATS (58.1%) since 2020. Since 1989, NBA road favorites of -3.5 to -9.5 points with revenge are 201-156-8 ATS (56.3%) versus opponents entering off a home win, including 94-63-4 ATS (59.9%) since 2016. Since 2006, NBA home underdogs of greater than four points coming off a game in which 200 or more points were scored are 814-1031-37 ATS (44.1%) versus .749 or worse opponents.
Finally, Indiana falls into a very good 1216-917-41 ATS (57%) NBA system of mine that dates to 2001 and invests on road favorites of greater than three points. This situation is 388-265-14 ATS (59.4%) since 2019.
Ottawa Senators at Nashville Predators (-125)
Report: Since 2003, NHL home favorites on a three-plus game losing streak are 979-653 (60%), winning by an average margin of +0.6 goals per game. Since 2002, rested NHL teams of -106 or greater coming off three consecutive losses are 169-87 (66%; +10.9% ROI) versus opponents entering off three or more consecutive wins. Since 2002, NHL home favorites of less than -150 coming off a loss by three or more goals are 267-152 (63.7%; +13.5% ROI) versus opponents entering off back-to-back games decided by three or more goals. Since 2020, non-conference home favorites of -150 or less are 308-215 (58.9%; +5.3% ROI) since 2020. Since 2003, NHL underdogs coming off three or more consecutive wins are 842-1374 (38%; -12.2% ROI), including 136-260 (34.3%; -19.4% ROI) since 2021, losing by an average of -0.9 goals per game.
Finally, since 2003, .599 or worse NHL underdogs entering off three or more consecutive losses are 557-966 (36.6%; -14.1% ROI), including 93-185 (33.5%; -19.3% ROI) since 2020, losing by an average of -1.0 goals per game.
NBA Trade Blockbuster
The Dallas Mavericks and Los Angeles Lakers stunned the NBA over the weekend with a swap of All-Stars that carries significant implications for both teams. Luka Doncic is headed to the Lakers, while Dallas acquired All-Star center Anthony Davis, the Lakers’ leader in points, rebounds, and blocks per game, and guard Max Christie and the Lakers’ 2029 first-round pick. Due to the NBA’s salary cap rules, the trade also required the Utah Jazz as a third team, which acquired guard Jalen Hood-Schifino from Los Angeles and 2025 second-round picks from the Clippers and Mavericks.
Doncic will be eligible for a four-year extension worth nearly $229 million this summer. Doncic could also sign a shorter bridge extension of three years and $165 million with a player option for 2028-29 that would allow him to push his salary up to 35% of the cap once he has attained ten seasons of experience. Davis hasn’t been as dominant defensively as he once was earlier in his career, but his 30% usage rate is his highest with the Lakers and has come with only a modest decline in efficiency.
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