Game: Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Buffalo Bills
Time: 8:15 p.m.
Odds: Bucs +9.5, Bills -9.5
Total: 43.5
When the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-3, 3-3) visit the Buffalo Bills (4-3 SU, 3-4 ATS) on Thursday night, two sputtering offenses look to get going again. The Buccaneers have scored 13 points or less in three of their last four games. Buffalo has scored just 10 first-half points in each of its last three games, going 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS during that span. Not surprising is the fact that eight of the Buccaneers’ last ten games have gone Under the total, the last four in a row.
The Bucs dropped to .500 after going 0-2 at home in their last two games. They are probably glad to get out of town. Compared to 1-3 SU and ATS at Raymond James Stadium, Tampa Bay is 2-0 SU and ATS on the road this year.
The Buccaneers haven’t been particularly successful in primetime appearances. They are 0-6 ATS in their last six games played under the lights and 1-9 ATS in their last 10 Thursday games. Tampa’s biggest problem in those situations has been its inability to score. In nine of their last 11 night games, the Under has cashed.
During their recent two-game skid, QB Baker Mayfield and the offense have fallen short. In Sunday’s 16-13 home loss to Atlanta, Tampa Bay reached the end zone just once, one week after scoring six points in a loss to the Lions.
The Bills are scoring less than half as many points per game during their current slump than they had through a three-game winning streak. Buffalo is 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS in their last three games. They are now 4-3 on the season. After averaging more than 40 points per game during a three-game winning streak, Buffalo struggled to score in its next three games. The Bills didn’t score a touchdown last week until the third quarter of Sunday’s 29-25 loss at New England. They trailed 22-10 with six minutes remaining in the game.
In the Bills’ last two games, quarterback Josh Allen has only thrown for 434 yards, which has fueled rumors that he is masking a shoulder injury. In Buffalo’s last four games, he has averaged less than 15 rushing yards per game, which is below his usual output.
This season, Tampa Bay’s defense has kept the Buccaneers in every game they’ve played, allowing an average of 17.3 points per game and never more than 25. The Buccaneers’ offense, which has only scored two touchdowns in its three losses, must do better. Thankfully, Tampa Bay might be getting the Bills defense at the right time. Buffalo is dealing with injuries to a number of defensive starters. It showed last week as the Bills gave up a season-high 29 points.
The Bills have demonstrated the ability to score when necessary even during their recent struggles. Buffalo has averaged 16 points in the fourth quarter of their last three games. The Bills are 16-3 SU in their last 19 home games. Allen, who was intercepted on Buffalo’s first offensive play last week in New England, is 32-23 SU when he commits at least one turnover.
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