Game: Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs
Time: 8:15 p.m.
Odds: Broncos +10.5, Chiefs -10.5
Total: 47
Kansas City (4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS) has 15 consecutive wins against the Denver Broncos (1-4, 0-4-1) leading up to their AFC West clash tonight at Arrowhead Stadium. The Chiefs have also won four in a row since their opening-night loss to Detroit Three of those four wins also covered the spread. It’s worth noting that Kansas City holds a 12-1 SU record in its last 13 games dating back to last season.
The Broncos have struggled in their recent road games, losing 12 out of the last 14. They haven’t fared much better within their division either, losing 10 out of the last 11 against AFC West rivals. Denver has failed to take advantage of a favorable early-season schedule, losing to teams with a combined two wins so far this season. The Broncos lost to the Jets, Commanders, and Raiders all at home. Even their sole victory required a remarkable comeback against the 1-4 Bears. In addition, their lone game against a team with a winning record resulted in a blowout loss of 70-20 against the Dolphins.
The Broncos are now faced with an uphill battle as they prepare to face the Chiefs twice within a four-game stretch, one in which they will also face the Packers and the Bills. In their last seven primetime appearances, the Broncos have managed just one victory.
Turning our attention to the Chiefs, Patrick Mahomes and the KC offense have yet to hit their stride this season, scoring 27 points or less in four out of their first five games. However, their defense has stood tall, allowing an average of just 16.0 points per game and helping the Chiefs to a strong 4-1 SU start.
Considering recent trends, it is expected that the Chiefs’ defense will once again play a prominent role this week, particularly with star tight end Travis Kelce nursing a sprained ankle. It’s worth noting that the Chiefs have gone Under the total in eight out of their last 10 home games at Arrowhead. Kansas City has also won eight of those ten games.
If the Broncos are going to have any chance of pulling the upset, they will have to improve upon their third quarter performance. So far this season, Denver averages just 2.0 points per game in the third quarter. Against a high-scoring Chiefs offense, that won’t cut it.
Denver is 0-7 in its last seven trips to Arrowhead. The Broncos have yet to cover a spread all season and they are 0-5-1 ATS in their last six games. What’s interesting is that Denver was favored in four of its first five games this season.
While the Under is trending for Kansas City, the Over has cashed in four of the last six Broncos-Chiefs games. Last year’s two games produced 51 and 62 points. Denver’s defense is dead last in the NFL in points allowed per game, giving up 37.5. That won’t win a lot of games in the NFL.
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