Game: Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Time: 8:15 p.m.
Odds: Browns -2, Steelers +2
Total: 38.5
Tonigh, the Cleveland Browns (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS) will travel to the Pittsburgh Steelers (0-1, 0-1) as small road favorites in an attempt to build on an impressive season-opening performance. The Browns dominated the Cincinnati Bengals 24-3 last week as one-point home underdogs in another AFC North matchup. The Steelers were also one-point home underdogs last week but lost to the San Francisco 49ers 30-7. Tonight’s game is the second of two Monday night games tonight.
Cleveland’s offense fell short of expectations in the season opener, but the defense excelled in limiting Cincinnati quarterback Joe Burrow to a career-low 82 passing yards. The Browns are now 5-1 against Burrow and look to contain Steelers second-yard quarterback Kenny Pickett tonight.
The Browns’ challenge will be to play well in this situation as the favorite on the road. The Browns have a 3-8 ATS record in their last 11 games as favorites away from home. The good news is that Cleveland is 5-2 SU and 5-2 ATS in its last seven divisional games when playing as a road chalk.
Many thought that Pittsburgh would challenge San Francisco, but it never happened. Running back Christian McCaffrey led the 49ers to a rout of the Steelers with 152 rushing yards and a 65-yard touchdown run. That’s good news for Cleveland which saw RB Nick Chubb run for 106 yards last week. QB Deshaun Watson added another 45 yards, including a touchdown run of 13 yards. Look for Chubb to have success just like McCaffrey did against Pittsburgh in Week 1.
The Browns must continue to apply pressure defensively to Pickett just as they did to Burrow last week. Dionte Johnson’s hamstring injury means the Steelers will be without one of their top wide receivers. Also, DT Cameron Heyward is out indefinitely with a groin injury.
The Steelers don’t lose consecutive home games very often. They haven’t lost two straight home games in two straight weeks since the 2021 season. Pittsburgh beat the Browns at home last year 28-14. Cleveland is still just 4-12-1 SU in the last 17 games against the Steelers. The Browns are only 3-10 SU in their last 13 road games. Pittsburgh is 19-1 SU the last 20 times the Steelers have played the Browns at home.
What’s interesting is that Pittsburgh is a home underdog on Monday night. The Steelers have had great success on Monday Night Football as a whole. Home teams in divisional games are 12-8 SU in the last 20 and they are 14-5-1 ATS. Home underdogs on Monday night have a tendency to play in low-scoring games. The Under is 28-12-1 (70 percent) in Monday night games with a home dog. Also of interest, in the last 13 divisional games on a Monday night, the Under is 11-1-1. That’s over 91 percent. That is one of the reasons why tonight’s total is sitting at 38.5. Keep in mind that the total opened at 43.5.
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