Game: Ohio Bobcats @ Buffalo Bulls
Time: 7:30 p.m.
Odds: Bobcats -7, Bulls +7
Total: 44
Ohio QB Kurtis Rourke is essentially returning home tonight. He grew up in nearby Ontario, not too far from Buffalo where his Bobcats (6-3) will face the Bulls (3-6) tonight. Ohio has a soft remaining schedule, so they are still very much in the running for a MAC Championship berth. That’s exactly what the doctor ordered. The Bobcats are coming off a bye week into this dream matchup.
Rourke has played a major role in the offense’s success, as the Bobcats are 25th in the nation in passing success rate. Tonight, Rourke will be able to take advantage of Buffalo’s weak secondary and rely on the passing game. The one area of this game where Ohio struggles is in completing drives. In that metric, the Bobcats rank 108th. Although Buffalo doesn’t have a very good offense, the Bulls might have a shot if Ohio has to settle for too many field goals.
Ohio has a distinct defensive advantage tonight. The Bobcats rank in the top 20 nationally in most defensive metrics, including line yards and rush success rate. They are the best defense in the conference and this is a major mismatch because of Buffalo’s inability to move the ball.
Buffalo has a solid rushing attack, but their passing game leaves a lot to be desired. The Bulls’ offensive problems are largely visible in the advanced metrics, as they rank outside of the top 100 in terms of passing success rate and offensive line yards. QB Cole Snyder has been a complete train wreck and seems to be getting worse every week. Last week, Snyder completed just 34% of his passes and threw two interceptions. Last week in a 31-13 loss to Toledo, the Bulls defense forced four turnovers, but the offense was unable to take advantage.
The Buffalo defense is right there with Ohio. In fact, the Bulls and Bobcats are two of the top three defenses in the MAC. Both teams allow fewer than 19 points per conference game. Both defenses are in the nation’s top 30 in terms of total scoring opportunities allowed since Week 5. That means these defenses haven’t allowed opponents to get inside their own 40-yard line with much frequency.
Limiting scoring opportunities is why both teams trend Under. The Under has cashed a winning ticket in seven of the Bobcats’ last nine games. Ohio’s last three straight have all gone Under the total. For Buffalo, it’s more of the same. The Under has hit in each of the Bulls’ last five games. It’s also worth noting that the Under has cashed in each of Buffalo’s last six conference games and the Under is 4-1 in the Bulls’ last five MAC East Division games.
Ohio is 14-4 SU in its last 18 games and, as mentioned, still has a shot at a MAC title game berth. They have been solid against the number lately, going 4-2 ATS in their last six games. With its strong defense, Buffalo has done the same, going 4-2 ATS in its last six games.
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