Game: New Mexico State Aggies @ UTEP Miners
Time: 9:00 p.m.
Odds: Aggies -3, Miners +3
Total: 47.5
The New Mexico State Aggies have been on a tear as of late, winning two straight games at home against Sam Houston and FIU. The Aggies have won three of their most recent four games overall and have been good to bettors going 3-0-1 against the spread in those four games.
QB Diego Pavia is one of the more underrated college quarterbacks in the nation. So far this season, he has completed 62.2% of his passes for 1,615 yards, and 14 touchdowns. He has thrown just 5 interceptions, and he also leads the team in rushing yards with 431. Pavia has scored twice on the ground.
Pavia is one of only nine quarterbacks playing at the FBS level who leads his team in passing yards as well as in rushing yards. Jonathan Brady and Trent Hudson, the team’s top two receivers, have combined for eight touchdowns and each has at least 331 receiving yards. Both receivers are averaging at least 18.8 yards per reception. It’s a quick-strike offense that is balanced.
The Aggies rank in the top-60 in both passing offense and rushing offense. NMSU averages 30 points per game and scored a combined 61 in its last two games. That is good news heading into tonight. The UTEP defense has had its share of difficulties this season.
The Miners ended a losing streak of four games and a losing streak against the spread with a decisive road victory at FIU. UTEP’s 27-14 victory allowed the Miners to snap three straight ATS losses. The Miners are just 2-5 ATS for the season. A big part of that is an offense that has underperformed.
UTEP comes into tonight’s game averaging just 17.71 points per game. That ranks 126th in the nation. Remember, there are 133 FBS teams. That’s not good. The Miners rank in the bottom half of the nation in passing and total offense. In addition to their win over FIU, UTEP’s only other victory this season is against FCS Incarnate Word.
The Miners’ defense is also not very good. The UTEP defense has surrendered 24 points or more in four of the last five games they’ve played. They have also allowed 31 points or more in three of those contests. The dynamic New Mexico State offense will be another difficult test for the Miners.
NMSU, under head coach Jerry Kill, is 10-4 SU in its last 14 games. The Aggies are 5-1 ATS in their last six. Historically, NMSU has struggled against UTEP. The Aggies have just three wins over the Miners in the last 13 meetings. NMSU has also struggled on the road. They are just 3-17 in their last 20 games away from home. This season, two of their three losses have come on the road.
With such a low-scoring offense, it’s no surprise that the Under trends for UTEP. Five of their last seven game totals have gone Under. At home, eight of the last nine have gone Under and against NMSU, four of the last five totals have gone Under.
Join Oskeim Sports today and save 20% on your first purchase at the online store!