Game: Kansas State Wildcats @ Oklahoma State Cowboys
Time: 7:30 p.m.
Odds: Wildcats -11.5, Cowboys +11.5
Total: 53
After a bye week for both teams, Kansas State (3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS) and Oklahoma State (2-2, 1-3) meet in Stillwater in a crucial Big 12 matchup. When the teams met last year, the Wildcats destroyed Oklahoma State 48-0, improving to 9-3 ATS in the previous 12 meetings between the rivals. But, the Cowboys have triumphed over Kansas State in seven of their last eight home contests, and they are 7-2 SU and ATS in their previous nine games as a home underdog.
The defending Big 12 champion Wildcats began conference play before their bye last week with a 44-31 victory over UCF. Despite being injured, quarterback Will Howard threw for 255 yards and ran for two touchdowns, and running back DJ Giddens amassed 293 rushing yards and four scores.
The K-State defense, which had held its first two opponents to a combined 13 points before giving up 30-plus points in each of its last two games, could be a cause for concern. The offense needed to put up those big numbers to overcome a second consecutive poor performance by the KSU defense. In three of their four games this year and six of their last eight games dating back to 2022, the Wildcats have seen the total go Over.
The Cowboys’ most recent loss was to Iowa State, 34–27, but in the process, they might have identified a quarterback. After using a three-man rotation in its first three games, Oklahoma State’s sixth-year senior quarterback Alan Bowman earned praise after tossing a touchdown pass and running for another in that game.
On defense, Oklahoma State didn’t fare as well. The Cowboys gave up 34 points and 350 passing yards to an Iowa State team that was only averaging 16.7 points prior to the game. After going 5-0 to start the previous season, Oklahoma State has now lost eight of its last 12 games, covering the spread just three times in that span.
After an additional week of recovery to rest his injured leg, Howard might perform even better than he did in the Wildcats’ win over UCF. Kansas State has a proven track record of delivering as favorites, going 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games when laying points. They have also won nine of their previous ten games as road underdogs. When the teams met last season, the Wildcats had no trouble limiting Oklahoma State’s rushing attack, limiting the Cowboys to less than two yards per carry.
Since Oklahoma State is playing at home on a Friday night and is seeking vengeance for losing to the Wildcats 48-0 last year, motivation shouldn’t be a problem. Bowman had more time during the bye week to become familiar with the offense, and he should be more confident now knowing he will be the starter. Oklahoma State needs to tighten up defensively after allowing 67 points in its last two games.
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