Game: Miami Marlins @ San Diego Padres
Time: 9:40 p.m.
Odds: Marlins +159, Padres -174
Total: 7.5
The Padres prevailed 6-2 in Game 1 of this three-game series, which continues tonight. The Marlins appeared to be in control of Padres starter Michael Wacha twice in the first four innings. However, the Marlins ended up scoring zero runs despite two great opportunities.
With one out in the first inning following back-to-back singles by Josh Bell and Luis Arraez, the Marlins had runners at the corners. Jake Burger and Jazz Chisholm Jr. were both struck out by Wacha to end the threat. Jake Burger’s single and Wacha’s only two walks of the game loaded the bases for the Marlins in the fourth inning. Joey Wendle grounded into a double play to end that threat as well.
Both teams are struggling. The Marlins are just 1-5 SU in their last 6 games. The Padres have lost 10 of their last 15 games. Even after a solid win last night, the Padres have a tendency to turn in lackluster performances after significant victories.
Tonight’s game will feature a left-handed pitching matchup between Blake Snell of San Diego (10-8, 2.65 ERA) and Jesus Luzardo of Miami (8-8, 4.13), which would appear to favor the Padres on paper. The Miami rotation spot for Luzardo was supposed to be on Monday. However, Luzardo was granted an additional day of rest because of Luzardo’s recent difficulties.
In his last four starts, Luzardo has a record of 0-3 and has thrown 17 innings. He has allowed 21 runs (20 earned), 30 hits, including eight home runs, nine walks, and has 16 strikeouts. His ERA over that span is a ridiculously high 10.59. That raises his season ERA from 3.22 to 4.13. Additionally, in any of the last four starts, Luzardo didn’t last longer than 5.1 innings.
Luzardo is capable. While pitching in Oakland, he came in eighth in the voting for the American League Rookie of the Year in 2020. This season, he has struck out 160 batters in 137 1/3 innings. That’s an average of 10.5 Ks per nine innings. He also had a 3.29 ERA going into the All-Star break. In three starts against the Padres in his career, Luzardo is 0-3 with a 6.19 ERA. On June 1, he lost to San Diego at home 10-1 after allowing five runs in 5.1 innings.
Snell’s earned run average, meanwhile, is the best in the major leagues. His 78 walks over 136 innings also put him in first place. No pitcher has ever been tops in those two categories at the end of an MLB season. Snell also has the lowest hit rate in the major leagues (6.2 hits per nine innings).
After going 3-1 in five starts with a 0.87 ERA, a 0.677 WHIP, and allowing a .124 opponents’ batting average, Snell was named the National League Pitcher of the Month for June. He is 9-2 since the beginning of June and has won his last four decisions. In his previous 16 starts, he has allowed 3 ER just once. Since the All-Star break, his walk rate has increased, increasing his pitch count and reducing his innings. Since June 11, Snell hasn’t pitched a full seven innings.
Snell has faced the Marlins five times in his career and is 2-1 with a 3.00 ERA. On May 31, he pitched at Miami without allowing a run while giving up three hits over six innings. However, he was not given a decision. In the bottom of the ninth, the Marlins ended up scoring twice to win 2-1.
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