Game: New York Yankees @ New York Mets
Time: 7:10 p.m.
Odds: Yankees -113, Mets +103
Total: 7.5
Well, this season’s opening Subway Series matchup was certainly entertaining. The teams traded leads back and forth before the Yankees won a nail-biting 7-6 game in Queens on Tuesday night.
In the standings, neither team is where it would like to be. The Mets’ season has been particularly disappointing because they are currently below .500 and in fourth place in the NL East. Despite being 10 games over .500, the Yankees are still in third place in the AL East and eight games behind division leader Tampa Bay.
Sadly, neither of these teams will have their best hitter on the field tonight, but they will both have their best pitcher. It’s incredible that Gerrit Cole has yet to receive a Cy Young Award. Although he has placed fifth five times in the voting, he has not yet won. Cole has completed five straight seasons with an ERA of 3.50 or less, and he’s well on his way to a sixth.
The Yankees’ ace is 7-1 with a 2.84 ERA and still has one of the best fastballs in the league. His slider and curveball, however, haven’t been as effective as they once were. In fact, there are a few aspects of Cole that seem a little strange. He has the second-worst xERA (4.01) of his career and his 25.8 percent strikeout rate is significantly lower than the 32.4% mark he registered last year. Cole doesn’t even rank in the top third of the league, which he usually does.
The Yankees’ offense has fluctuated throughout the early going and currently sits at 23rd in wOBA. Last week, Aaron Judge was placed on the injured list, making things even more difficult. However, New York demonstrated on Tuesday that it can score even without Judge thanks to home runs by Giancarlo Stanton, DJ LeMahieu, and Anthony Volpe.
When the Mets signed three-time Cy Young Award winner Justin Verlander in the offseason, they didn’t see this coming. Verlander has made just seven starts this season after beginning the year on the injured list. He managed just a 4.85 ERA to start his Mets career after recording an absurd 1.75 ERA last year.
This season, Verlander has struggled with home runs. In seven games, he has given up seven home runs, and both his average exit velocity and hard-hit rate are in the bottom quarter of the league. Like Cole, he has a very low strikeout rate. He missed bats at a rate of 27.8 percent last year, but this season that number is 19.9%. His fastball is getting crushed – opponents have a xwOBA of .378 against it – and his walk rate is up.
The Mets are now 1-9 SU in their last ten games. They are also just 1-4 SU in their last five games at home. The Yankees are now 9-2 SU in their last 11 road games.
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