Game: Home Run Derby
Time: 8:00 p.m.
Favorite: Pete Alonso +300
Tonight at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN, the 2023 MLB Home Run Derby from Seattle’s T-Mobile Park takes place. Eight sluggers will compete in a bracket format to determine this year’s winner. It is one of the most popular MLB betting events of the summer.
This puts MLB’s showcase – the All-Star game – in the spotlight, and there are many different ways to bet on this event. You can bet the outright winner, head-to-head matchups, longest home run, and more.
The Favorites
Pete Alonso of the Mets is the overall favorite to win the event. Luis Robert Jr. of the White Sox is the No. 1 seed. Alonso is seeded second but is the favorite to win at +300. The Dodgers Mookie Betts is the No. 3 seed.
Betts is listed at +1800, but he could be in a very good spot. He’ll face Vladimir Guerrero Jr in Round 1. He is on the opposite side of the bracket away from Robert, Adolis Garcia, Randy Arozarena, and Adley Rutschman.
Betts’ Exit Velocity Average falls into the 92nd percentile. He has a barrel rate that is 82 percentile. His maximum average exit velocity, which is 110.1 mph, is a little lower than some of the field’s heavy hitters. However, he ought to be able to perform well given how hard he consistently hits the ball.
With 26 homers this season, Betts shares the field lead with Pete Alonso and Robert. Only Guerrero and Arozarena are ahead of him in average exit velocity. It’s interesting that Betts is listed at such a high price.
Watch Garcia
Garcia has a very strong swing, but obviously, this is very different from major-league pitching. In terms of Barrel Rate and Max Exit Velocity, he ranks in the top six percent of all hitters, and in terms of xSLG, he is the top hitter in his group of four. For what it’s worth, he leads all Home Run Derby competitors in Barrel Rate.
Garcia has 23 homers for the season, and he’ll face Arozarena in the opening round. You can bet Garcia to win it all at +700. You can also bet on his head-to-head matchup with Arozarena. Garcia is given a slight advantage at +220 to beat the Rays star.
Contenders
Julio Rodriguez hit 81 home runs last season, which is the second-highest total in Home Run Derby history. In order to reach the finals once more, he will undoubtedly have to beat Alonso, who hit 74 in 2021, and Guerrero, who had 91 in 2019.
With a max exit velocity of 115.5 mph, Rodriguez is second in the field, and Alonso is fourth (113.7 mph). Rodriguez also has a much higher average exit velocity (93rd vs. 49th percentile), hard-hit rate (92nd vs. 52nd percentile), and barrel rate.
Rodriguez is priced at +500 to win it all and will face Alonso in the first round. Alonso has also had offensive issues since coming back too soon from a wrist injury in June. His slash line of .153/.265/.361 over 83 plate appearances (78 wRC+) leaves questions related to his current health.
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