Oskeim Sports’ Free Pick for Saturday, June 10: Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees

Jun 10, 2017

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Baltimore right-hander Chris Tillman has been an unmitigated disaster this season, posting a 5.59 ERA, 5.21 FIP, 5.53 xFIP and a 5.56 SIERA.  His strikeout rate has plummeted (5.90 K/9) while his walks have spiked (4.66 BB/9).  Facing the red-hot Yankees today certainly won’t help matters.

Since May 7, Tillman has allowed 20 runs (17 earned) in seventeen innings of work, including yielding five runs and six hits last Sunday against the Red Sox.  He issued a season-high four walks and threw 103 pitches to a season-high 27 batters.

The Orioles are 1-4 in Tillman’s last five starts and 2-5 in Tillman’s last seven starts following a team loss.  New York right-hander Luis Severino is 4-2 with a 2.90 ERA and 1.06 WHIP this season, including going 2-0 with a 1.27 ERA and 0.93 WHIP in his last three starts.

Severino’s surface numbers are backed by outstanding peripherals: 3.16 FIP, 2.89 xFIP and a 3.11 SIERA.  The 23-year-old also boasts a solid 27.5% strikeout rate and 54.5% ground ball rate.  New York’s bullpen continues to pitch extraordinarily well, garnering a 2.96 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in 2017.

The Yankees’ relief staff enters today’s game with a 1.12 ERA and 0.62 WHIP over the last seven games.  In contrast, Baltimore relievers own a 4.93 ERA and 1.56 WHIP on the road and a 4.15 ERA and 1.47 WHIP versus division foes.

Tillman faces a potent New York lineup that is averaging 6.0 runs per game at home (.826 OPS) , 5.8 runs per game against divisional opponents (.801 OPS) and 6.1 runs over its last seven games (.834 OPS).  Baltimore’s scuffling lineup is averaging just 4.4 runs per game this season, including 3.7 runs over its last seven games.

From a technical standpoint, Baltimore is a money-burning 3-13 in its last sixteen road games, 0-8 in its last eight road games versus right-handed starters, 0-4 in its last four games versus .501 or greater opposition and 0-7 in its last seven affairs after scoring two runs or less in its previous game.

Meanwhile, the Yankees are a profitable 22-10 in game 2 of a series, 37-18 at home, 35-16 at home versus right-handed starters and 38-14 in their last 52 home games versus teams with a road win percentage of .399 or less.  Finally, the Orioles are just 8-17 in their last 25 games at Yankee Stadium.

With New York standing at 5-0 in Severino’s last five starts versus teams with a winning record, take the Yankees on the run line as Oskeim Sports’ Free Pick for Saturday, June 10.

Oskeim Sports’ Free Pick for Saturday, June 10: New York Yankees (-1.5)