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Wisconsin Welcomes a Hungover Northwestern Squad

Wisconsin (-10) (-110) over Northwestern

Analysis: It is difficult to find a more underrated team that Wisconsin as the Badgers are 1.2 yards per play better than average offensively and 1.1 yards per play better than average defensively this season.  Those statistics are indicative of an elite team, and I expect the Badgers to blowout an emotionally deflated Northwestern squad that is coming off a heartbreaking 40-30 loss to Ohio State last week.  While Wisconsin is 3-2 on the year, the Badgers were screwed by the officials against Arizona State (2-point loss) and suffered a competitive 7-point loss at Ohio State.  Needless to say, my math model projects a comfortable double-digit win for Wisconsin in this contest, and I have no reason to sway from that projection.

Wisconsin Offense vs. Northwestern Defense:

+1.5 yards per rush play advantage

+0.2 yards per pass attempt advantage

+1.0 yards per play advantage overall

Wisconsin also maintains a solid 0.6 yards per play advantage defensively over the Wildcats’ attack, which is 0.7 yards per play better than average (6.4 yards per play against teams that combine to allow 5.7 yards per play).

Wisconsin Defense vs. Northwestern Offense:

  • +0.6 yards per rush play advantage
  • -1.1 yards per pass attempt disadvantage
  • +0.6 yards per play advantage overall

The situation strongly favors the Badgers as they are coming off a much-needed bye week wherein several players were able to get healthy.  Melvin Gordon, averaging a conference-best 139.6 rushing yards per game, suffered a knee injury against Ohio State but will play Saturday.  Tight end Jacob Pedersen (knee) and receiver Kenzel Doe (hamstring) will also be good to go after missing time.

From a technical standpoint, Wisconsin applies to 45-9-1 ATS, 35-12 ATS and 21-4 ATS angles of mine that are a perfect 3-0 ATS when intersecting one another in the same game.  Lay the points with the Badgers and invest with confidence.

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