West Virginia Getting Too Many Points: Upset Alert in Morgantown

Oct 15, 2014


West Virginia set a school record with its fifth consecutive game of reaching the 500-yard mark in last week’s 37-34 come-from -behind win at Texas Tech.  The Mountaineers continue to be one of the most underrated teams in the country and possess the offense to win this game outright.

West Virginia Offense:

West Virginia is averaging 36.7 points per game at 4.1 yards per rush play, 8.5 yards per pass play and 6.3 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow just 4.3 yards per rush attempt, 7.0 yards per pass attempt and 5.5 yards per play to a mediocre offensive squad.  The Mountaineers are also averaging an impressive 40.0 points per game at home at 4.8 yards per rush play, 8.5 yards per pass play and 6.5 yards per play.  West Virginia starting quarterback Clint Trickett is completing 69% of his pass attempts and averaging 367 passing yards per game this season, and he should have success moving the chains against a Baylor secondary that was exploited by TCU last week.

Overall, West Virginia is 1.5 yards per pass play and 0.8 yards per play better than average offensively in 2014, which matches up well against a Baylor stop unit that is 0.7 yards per pass attempt and 0.7 yards per play better than average.  While West Virginia will not have success running the ball – Baylor possesses a 0.8 yards per rush play advantage from the line of scrimmage – the Mountaineers have a 0.8 yards per pass play and 0.1 yards per play advantage offensively over the Bears’ defense.

West Virginia Defense:

The real question is whether West Virginia’s defense will be able to slow down the Bears’ potent attack.  The good news for West Virginia bettors is the fact that the Mountaineers are limiting opponents to 19.7 points per game at home on 3.7 yards per rush play, 4.9 yards per pass play and 4.2 yards per play.  Those numbers are significantly better than the Mountaineer’s overall defensive statistics in 2014, which suggest that West Virginia mediocre from the line of scrimmage.  However, Balyor’s aerial attack will be slowed down by an excellent West Virginia secondary that is 0.7 yards per pass play better than average (6.4 yards per pass play to a group of quarterbacks who would average 7.1 yards per pass play against a mediocre secondary).

West Virginia takes the field with legitimate revenge after being humiliated 73-42 at Baylor last year, and the situation is also favorable to the Mountaineers as Baylor is traveling for the third time in just four weeks.  My math model only favors Baylor by six points, and the Bears fall into a very negative 12-63-2 ATS road letdown situation of mine that is predicated upon their miraculous come-from-behind win last week against TCU.

In contrast, West Virginia applies to a very good 21-3-1 ATS momentum situation of mine that is already 2-0 ATS this season.  Finally, Baylor head coach Art Briles is a money-burning 4-25 SU on the road versus .600 or greater opposition,  including 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS when his team is undefeated, with only one win coming by more than eight points.  Grab the generous number with West Virginia and invest with confidence.