Week Two NFL Betting Preview: Dallas Cowboys at Kansas City Chiefs

Sep 14, 2013

It’s hard to be impressed with the Cowboys’ 36-31 win over Giants last week as they were the beneficiaries of six New York turnovers.  Meanwhile, Kansas City is under new leadership this season with head coach Andy Reid, who is very familiar with Sunday’s opponent as he faced Dallas twice a season for the past fourteen years as coach of the Eagles.  Dallas also saw some of its key players get banged up last week, including Tony Romo, Dez Bryant and Morris Claiborne.  The experts at Pro Edge Sports Picks have spent countless hours analyzing this game, and we believe Kansas City offers the best value in this matchup.  Please find below Pro Edge’s Week Two NFL Betting Preview between the Dallas Cowboys and Kansas City Chiefs:

Dallas Cowboys at Kansas City Chiefs (-3) (-110)

  • Dallas is 9-25 SU and 10-24 ATS on the road following one win exact, including 2-16 SU and 3-15 ATS versus an opponent off a win;
  • Dallas is 1-7 SU and 1-6-1 ATS after facing the Giants when matched up against an opponent off a win;
  • Dallas is 26-44 ATS on the road following a home win and 3-13 ATS after one or more consecutive wins;
  • Kansas City is 28-13 ATS at home versus non-conference opponents, while head coach Andy Reid is 8-2 SU and 9-1 ATS versus the Cowboys off a double-digit win;
  • The most impressive aspect of Kansas City’s win last week was its defense under new coordinator Bob Sutton.  The Chiefs allowed just two points on 3.1 yards per rush play, 2.6 yards per pass attempt and 178 total yards (2.8 yards per play; 89.0 yards per point);
  • Sutton’s high-pressure defensive schemes garnered six sacks and forced two interceptions against the Jaguars;
  • A lot has been said about Kansas City quarterback Alex Smith’s “dink and dunk” pass attack, but it cannot be argued that he is an incredible 21-5-1 as a starter since 2011.  Smith was 21-of-34 for 173 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions in his Kansas City debut;

Our math models favor Kansas City by four points but, unfortunately, the opening line of -1 was eaten up quickly by the sharps as the Chiefs are now three-point favorites at most books.  We also have to wonder if Andy Reid will be looking ahead to next Thursday’s game at Philadelphia – a homecoming of sorts for the coach.  Regardless, Pro Edge Sports like the Chiefs in this game and would recommend a money line investment at -160 or less.