Week Three College Football Betting Preview: TCU at Texas Tech

Sep 12, 2013

TCU travels to Lubbock, Texas to take on the Red Raiders and their explosive aerial attack under new head coach Kliff Kingsbury.  Kingsbury is Texas Tech’s #2 career passer and became the youngest BCS head coach after arriving in Lubbock following a brief stint as Texas A&M’s offensive coordinator in 2012.  Pro Edge Sports Picks has been analyzing this game all week, and we lean with the home underdog who is employing a very impressive Air Raid offense behind a walk-on quarterback.

Week Three College Football Betting Preview: TCU at Texas Tech

Fundamental Analysis

  • Texas Tech is averaging 51.0 points per game this season on 4.5 yards per rush attempt, 8.5 yards per pass attempt and 596 total yards (7.0 yards per play; 11.7 yards per point).  Walk-on freshman quarterback Baker Mayfield has looked solid in his first two collegiate starts wherein he has thrown for 780 with seven touchdowns and no interceptions;
  • TCU is averaging 32.5 points per game this season on 4.4 yards per rush play, 6.7 yards per pass play and 330 total yards (5.5 yards per play; 10.2 yards per point). TCU lost starting quarterback Casey Pachall to a broken arm last week, but backup Trevone Boykin has started nine games and is more than capable under center.
  • Boykin threw for a career-high 332 yards and four touchdowns in this third career start against the Red Raiders last year.

Technical Analysis

  • TCU is 10-17 ATS over the last three seasons and 6-13 ATS in its last 19 games as a favorite;
  • TCU is 7-1 ATS with conference revenge and 35-13-1 ATS in revenge situations when outrushing its opponents, which is almost  certain to happen in light of the Red Raiders’ aerial-based attack;
  • Texas Tech is 18-8 ATS as conference home underdogs, while the Horned Frogs are 1-4 ATS as road favorites and 3-7 ATS in their last ten conference games;
  • Texas Tech is 5-0 ATS in its last five games in September and 3-1 ATS over the last three years in competitively-priced games (+3 to -3)

Situational Analysis

  • Texas Tech is off a 61-13 win over Stephen F. Austin, while the Horned Frogs are off a 38-17 win over SE Louisiana.
  • The difference between the last week’s results can be found in how both teams handled their FCS opponents.  Texas Tech dominated its opponent from the outset, whereas the Horned Frogs were locked in a 14-14 tie in the second quarter becore finally taking control of the game.

Our experts lean with Texas Tech at +3, but Pro Edge Sports Picks is hoping that the public moves the point spread to +3.5 or +4 before kick-off, at which point we may make an official move on the game.